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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Comment: (not really about the grain business) – I have noticed recently that I am being overwhelmed by email, Gmail, Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, Skype, Whatsapp, Feedreader and on and on.
Out of curiosity I took a look at some of the items retweeted through Twitter, which seems to be the worst of the bunch, and I noticed that some retweeters were following several thousand people/companies and retweeting most everything. I am following 45 companies and that results in me getting many, many, many tweets every day – too many – and many are just the same tweet retweeted from someone else. How can one possibly follow several thousand people. What a waste of time. I guess that I am really a non-tweeter, as in all the time that I have been on Twitter I have only tweeted 14 times.
One more complaint about Twitter – in between grain comments from some people you will find a quick tweet telling about their fun night on the town in Atlanta or Hong Kong – who cares.
I must be getting to be an old codger to be complaining about social media but there is far too much valueless nonsense disguised as valuable information – but then it is "social" media isn't it.
Also, looking at my weekly report – a free report that I have provided faithfully for more than 25 years. All of the information that I provide in one place is readily available hidden in the internet or in tweets or feeds or trade reports. When I started this report much of the information was not freely available, only through trade relationships, so the weekly report was of value – although both buyers and sellers complained about me showing indicative prices – but today all this information is available everywhere (well, in amongst the thousands of tweets, etc). Everyone knows the prices and the trends.
I guess the question is – in this day of overwhelming information is the Hammersmith report still relevant or should it just fade off into the social media sunset.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn prices had a very quiet week this week with not too much happening that seemed to have much effect on prices. According to some trade reports, the US farmers has sold most of his 2015 corn crop in advance of the new planting season, so we shouldn't large farmers sales in coming weeks.
Private forecasting services are saying that corn planting for 2016 should be higher than 2015 --- not a lot higher but certainly not lower. The USDA report on planting intentions will be out at the end of the month so we will see what their opinion on planting is.
There are some reports from Argentina that farmers are aggressively selling corn as a result of the adjustments to export taxes and controls. One report was saying that Argentina farmers are looking forward making some profit for the first time in years. It is interesting that they are able to make profits when the world corn prices are so low --- they should be even happier if prices increase. However, for much of 2016 no one seems to be expecting higher corn prices.
US soybean prices too were very steady on the week – perhaps a tad higher. The harvest pressure from large South American crops is keeping soybeans and soymeal from making any serious price rally. Hard to have prices move higher in the face of millions of m/t of new crop soybeans. There is some bad weather expected in both Argentina and Brazil this coming week but it should have little effect on the soybean harvest for most of the region.
On point on soybean prices – the November futures did reach their highest level in four months and some of the major managed money accounts are switching from short positions to long…..do they know something that we don't know or are they just taking some profits.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $11.50/12.50 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $13.00/13.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $13.00/13.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $16/17.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $9/10.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $9/10.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 395 | Up 7 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 197 | Up 21 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 463 | Down 14 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 449 | Up 29 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 260 | Up 11 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March/May 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 196/199 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 204/208 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/170 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/171 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 171/175 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 166/168 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 164/166 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 188/193 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 160/164 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 162/164 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 150/155 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 165/169 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 140/145 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 163/166 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 212/214 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 161/164 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 160/164 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 171/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 162/166 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 176/178 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 160/162 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 312/316 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 338/342 | x |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 362/367 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 322/327 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 307/311 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 316/321 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 284/288 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 545/555 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 361/365 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 391/395 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 338/343 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 344/349 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 360/365 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 540/545 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 588/592 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 620/625 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 150/155 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 171/174 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 213/216 m/t | x |
Prices for most corn by-products were steady this week although DDGS prices were quoted by some to be up to USD 5 m/t lower in both the domestic and export markets. Corn prices didn't do much this week so there was no need for by-products to react.
The USDA average prices in the USA had corn gluten feed down by about USD 3 m/t with corn gluten meal up by about USD 3.50 m/t. However, on the export side of things, corn gluten meal had another down week in prices as CNF USGulf prices dropped by as much as USD 10 m/t --- that is not a drop in spot prices but in export shipments out in May/June as most nearby export positions are sold out.
As usual, corn gluten feed had a quiet week – CGF only gets exciting when corn makes a decent move up or down.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 350/370 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia |
World prices for animal proteins are moving a little higher in most markets – especially in Asia, the main market for animal protein. Increases are not too large at present – USD 10 m/t or so – but most market experts are feeling that there is room for meat and bone meal to move another USD 30 to 40 m/t higher. Even with soymeal slipping a little there was still strength in meat and bone meal prices.
Domestic prices in the USA are also moving higher for animal proteins and we have seen a steady trend higher now for the past few weeks --- of course, prices did get very, very low for a while. It is mainly demand that is pushing prices in the USA as supply hasn't changed. Some producers report that they are very well sold for March/April and don't see much availability until May – just too many buyers in the domestic side of things.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishmeal prices in Peru moved higher this week as the stocks on hand are shrinking and supplies for some grades are very tight. Here we are in March and there will be nothing much in the way of new fishmeal from Peru until June, so prices are bound to move higher.
According to trade reports, China seems to be quite well covered for fishmeal supplies up to the new stocks from Peru and prices in China. As in Peru, are moving a little higher.
The latest flurry of buying in Peru has certainly reduced availability but some in the trade feel that there could be up to 50,000 m/t unsold – of course 50,000 m/t over three months is not a great deal of fishmeal.
With little left to sell, producers and traders are now back to speculating on what the quota will be for the next fishing season. Well, you know, we all need something to talk about when we have nothing much to sell.
As mentioned above, prices should be steady to higher for the next couple of months as buyers fight over the last of the supplies in Peru.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,700 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,460 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,580 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,670 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1310 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1395 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1430/1450 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/2850 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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