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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Corn, wheat, soybeans and soymeal were all up on the week – mostly in the futures market but also on the cash side – US corn futures were up by USD 6 to 7 m/t – soybean futures were up by USD 11 to 13 m/t with soymeal up by about USD 20. For wheat things were not quite as strong but soft red winter wheat was up by USD 4 to 5 m/t while hard red winter was up by just USD 2 m/t with hard red spring wheat up by USD 5 m/t.
It is reported that fir the first time in several months the "money managers" now have long positions in corn and their long positions in soybeans are the largest in a couple of years. It looks like they expect prices to be moving higher for longer than just a couple of weeks. Trade reports seem to feel that much of the buying in futures for corn and soymeal is related to the weather problems in South America and the concern for Brazil's corn crop coupled with similar worries about soybeans in Argentina.
Brazil's corn crop may be down by as much as 10 million m/t while Argentina is talking about soybean crop losses due to excessive rains and delayed harvest.
In the US, corn planting has been delayed in some areas due to rains but the forecast is improving and all should be back planting this coming week. As can be seen by the table below, US corn planting is running well ahead of average.
There is some talk that the rally in soybeans due to Argentina could be overdone and that the soybean losses may not be as bad as some are saying. Argentina is said to be drying out a little and in the US the soybean planting should be charging ahead this coming week.
It is certainly difficult to know where prices will go in the next few days but much will depend on the situation in South America and any new information that comes available.
Crop planting progress and condition --- USA and France
| Planting USA | April 24 2016 | April 24 2015 | Five year Average |
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| Corn | 30.0% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
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| Sorghum | 20.0% | 23.0% | 24.0% |
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| Soybeans | 3.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |
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| Spring Wheat | 42.0% | 50.0% | 28.0% |
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| Barley | 45.0% | 52.0% | 36.0% |
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| Condition USA | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Winter wheat | 1.0% | 7.0% | 33.0% | 50.0% | 9.0% |
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| Planting France | April 25 2016 | April 25 2015 |
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| Corn | 27.0% | 69.0% |
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| Barley | 100.0% | 100.0% |
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| Condition France | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Wheat | 0 | 3 | 9 | 55 | 33 |
| Winter barley | 0 | 3 | 9 | 57 | 30 |
| Durum wheat | 0 | 3 | 15 | 60 | 22 |
| Spring barley | 0 | 1 | 5 | 71 | 23 |
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@USDA and France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $24/25.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $35/36.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $17.50/18.00 | Up $0.50 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $18.00/18.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 703 | Up 15 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1117 | Up 32 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 667 | Down 69 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 582 | Up 24 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 367 | Up 13 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 200/203 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 204/211 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 175/178 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 191/194 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 182/185 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 175/177 | X |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 174/176 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 195/197 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 169/171 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 165/167 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 162/165 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 163/167 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 170/175 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 174/177 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 178/181 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 208/211 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 175/178 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 173/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 188/194 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 159/163 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 179>>173 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 164/169 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 384/387 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 423/426 | X |
| Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia | USD 431/436 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 390/393 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 372/375 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 382/386 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 328/332 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 600/605 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 394/398 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 437/441 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 378/382 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 395/399 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 390/400 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 535/540 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 560/570 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 605/610 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 130/135 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 188>>181 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 217>>210 m/t | x |
The spot export market for DDGS was quite firm as most shippers are sold out into June/July which has pushed nearby export price higher. Also, the recent strength in corn prices is helping to keep DDGS prices firm. The trade also expects that business to China will stay strong and this should keep DDGS from dropping much. However, domestic prices in the USA had DDGS steady to lower but this was not repeated in the export market.
Depending on who you listen to, the price for corn gluten meal was steady or perhaps higher, although the US Grains Council weekly report shows CGM quite a bit lower in the export market. Domestic prices in the US, as reported by the USDA, did show CGM prices mainly higher.
Corn gluten feed prices are reported to be lower on the week both in the domestic and export markets – something that was not expected with corn continuing to move higher.
If corn prices continue higher then there should be some move to higher prices for all corn by-products in coming days. Not so if corn prices start to slip lower.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 405/425 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 340/360 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 465/475 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 530/560 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/750 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices into the main importing markets in Asia seem to have leveled off with supply at a reasonable level and the recent increase in demand slowing. There are some reports of exporters looking for higher prices but, with the strong Indonesian demand seeming to now be covered, higher prices don't seem to be too likely.
However, with the continuing rally in soymeal prices there could be some upward pressure on animal protein if soymeal does continue to rally.
Report from Argentina say that the expected drop in soybean production has already pushed domestic MBM prices quite a bit higher and this is also being seen in the Argentina export market.
USA domestic prices for MBM were largely unchanged this week but feathermeal prices were lower – this was also seen in the US export prices. The Jacobsen report this week said that MBM supply is expected to increase in coming months and this could put some pressure on MBM prices – but not too much pressure if soymeal keeps racing higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Word out of the trade in Peru is that the current biomass does not look all that good and there is concern that the quota could be smaller than everyone was expecting. Some are now saying that the next quota may be as low as 1.5 million m/t of fishing – everyone had been hoping for 2.5 million m/t. Of course, for now this is all just rumors and speculation and perhaps we should not listen to all these stories of doom.
The more likely that a smaller quota becomes, the more likely that prices will start to move higher.
There has not been much in the way of business this week, as there is little left to sell and only a small quantity from the Southern Peru fishing and buyers don't seem to be all that interested in jumping into fishmeal positions from the next quota. Also, sellers are not all that interested in booking too much next quota business.
We will all just sit quietly and listen to all the stories and rumors and worry about what will happen in a few weeks.
There was word out of China this week that China Fishery Group Limited is putting its Peru fishmeal business on the block for sale. They have retained CITIC CLSA Securities – China owned, Hong Kong based – to assist in the sale.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,820 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,510 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,550 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,860 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1320/1330 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1340/1360 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1370/1390 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1400/1420 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1550/1580 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1620/1640 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2200/2250 | 1800/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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