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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 01, 2020
Sorry that I am a day late with the report this week – I had to make a quick trip on Saturday that pushed things off by a day.
This week was another down week for soybeans with prices down by about USD 10 m/t. Corn prices were about unchanged on the week while US spring wheat dropped by about USD 4 m/t. Friday seemed to be a down day for most everything as the market tried to deal with the coronavirus situation, UK Brexit, US/China trade and the latest comments from President Trump on US trade.
It is interesting to note that, even with all the downward pressure seen on grain prices, quite a few trade reports were talking bullish on prices as we move through the US winter. They seem to feel that US corn is now the most cost effective, as happens every year about this time, and that the US/China trade agreement will support soybean prices. There is even talk that US wheat may be able to pick off some export business due to high Black Sea wheat prices. There is also the story that Argentina is running out of wheat and may have to import – seems they oversold.
The situation with the Chinese coronavirus seems to be affecting most everything this week but the panic effect could very well be overdone as a virus wouldn't seem to have too much to do with bread or animal feed consumption levels – sick people still have to eat. This week may just have been a "virus panic" week – we will see what happens next week.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $16/17.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $46/47.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $44/45.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 |
| X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $30/31.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $20/21.00 |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $35/36.00 |
| X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $20/21.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Down $3.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up 1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $33/34.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 487 | Down 70 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | -20 | Down 185 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 574 | Down 296 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 524 | Down 19 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 332 | Down 28 | x |
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It is quite amazing to see a Baltic Index in a minus level – make you wonder what value the indexes actually are. One thing that is not seen from looking at the indexes is that freight rates in the Pacific have dropped considerably, due mainly to China, but rates in the Atlantic are still quite firm. There is good grain volume to be done cross the Atlantic and this is keeping grain rates from dropping like the rates for coal and ore shipment to Asia.
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2020/May 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 262/266 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 230/233 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 225/227 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 229/231 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 227/229 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 217/219 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 230/233 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 221/224 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 191/193 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 194/197 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 194/197 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 178/181 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 197/200 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 178/181 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 178/181 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 192/195 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 184/187 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 199/202 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185/188 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 148/151 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 181/184 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 368/371 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 361/364 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 333/336 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 316/319 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 343/346 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 340/343 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 384/387 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 545/550 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 212/215 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 209/212 m/t | x |
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DDGS prices moved lower this week following corn and soymeal sliding lower. The logistics in the US seem to have improved so there seems to be little problem getting corn byproducts to export ports.
No one at all is saying that prices will be moving higher for export --- there are a number of unknowns in the export business this week so most people feel that we will see prices as steady to lower. There doesn't seem to be any good reason to expect a prices rally.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia |
With both the Chinese New Year and Coronavirus in Asia there is a low level of selling activity this week. Prices for most animal protein items didn't change at all this week – of course with no buyers there is not much pushing the market. About the only increase in prices was for pet food grade poultry meal where demand has started to move higher. There is also the expectation that feed grade poultry meal prices will also move higher. Perhaps this is all due to the current shortage in world fishmeal supply.
Most trading comments seem to be calling for steady prices but if coronavirus cuts off export business then prices should slip lower.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
All is quiet in Peru but, as with other markets, the spread of corona virus in China is making the market somewhat nervous. The extended Chinese holiday also adds to market worries. With China being the main consumer of fishmeal in the world, anything that affects China makes fishmeal people worry.
Trade estimates in Peru are that about 125,000 m/t of business has been rolled to the next fishing season.
The odd lot of fishmeal that comes to market in Peru is said to be selling at "crazy" prices – not too surprising when there is little to sell.
Peru's Imarpe is being restructured so that it can become much more of a true scientific organization that employs staff and management with the "highest scientific qualifications". It is hoped that in the future Imarpe will be less politically motivated/directed in its actions.
Sorry that there is not much to say this week but there is nothing to sell and no buyers to be seen.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,625 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,365 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,600 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,590
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1460 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1510 m/t | 1500/1530 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1560 m/t | 1550/1560 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1610 m/t | 1600/1650 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1700/1750 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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