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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 22, 2020
Most of the grain prices didn't do anything exciting this week --- corn prices did nothing, soybeans moved down by about USD 2 m/t, soymeal also down by about USD 2 m/t. Only soft red winter wheat was able to do much with a jump of about USD 4 m/t.
Here in the middle of winter, there is not too much that can have a major effect on US grain prices except perhaps USDA reports and China actions. Only winter wheat has been planted and concerns over the wheat crop and supplies are about the only things adding excitement to the US grain markets.
The USDA Outlook Forum was held this week and every little comment from the Forum was able to push the market a little – shows how much the market is looking for some excitement. USDA expectations on ending corn stocks are higher which makes corn look a little top heavy, but prices only dropped a little as good export sales kept the market happy.
There was not much to get soybean/soymeal prices moving --- there were not any major new sales to China and soybean exports were lower than had been expected. It is pretty hard to justify price changes based on a weekly export number – but the futures traders are looking for any reason to make prices move a little.
The USDA Outlook Forum was a little bullish on wheat which seems to be the reason behind this week's small what rally. The USDA is looking for "tighter supply and lower ending stocks". Winter wheat production is seen to be lower but there is also come concern of wet weather and spring wheat.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 |
| X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $22/23.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 |
| x |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $40/41.00 | New | x |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $42/43.00 | New |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | No info |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| x |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 |
| x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 497 | Up 72 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | -226 | Up 68 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 787 | Up 151 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 524 | Up 54 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 291 | No info | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2020/May 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 252/255 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 225/228 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 216/219 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 220/223 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 219/222 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 216/218 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 232/235 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 213/216 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 187/189 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 193/196 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 192/195 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 177/180 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 191/194 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 174/177 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 166/169 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 188/191 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 181/184 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 204/207 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 145/148 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 180/182 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 338/341 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 363/366 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 334/337 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 358/361 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 326/329 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 354/357 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 349/352 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 346/349 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 384/387 | X |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 585/590 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 200/204 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 219/222 m/t | X |
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It was interesting to read the daily production numbers for corn byproducts that was published this week by the Jacobsen Report. A total of about 110,000 m/t of byproducts are produced everyday from ethanol production --- about 100,000 m/t of DDGS, 10,000 m/t of corn gluten feed and close to 2,000 m/t of corn gluten meal – all of this from 15 to 16 million bushels of corn (440,000 m/t) processed into ethanol each week.
Both DDGS and corn gluten meal prices moved higher this week with reports saying that much of the higher price was due to export demand. While the FOB USA prices did move higher, the CNF destination prices in container were even higher as most container lines have been increasing their rates --- increases of as much as USD 200 per 20 foot container have been seen – this is about USD 8 m/t in additional container freight.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 350/360 m/t CNF Asia USD 390/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 670/680 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 400/420 to Indonesia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein prices into Asia have all moved a little higher this week although business to China is still very quiet. There are some reports of shortages of containers for export shipments from Australia and New Zealand and there are reports from China that some feed facilities are closing down due to a lack of raw materials. Coronavirus is kind of throwing a wrench into the logistics for supply in Asia.
Prices out of Australia are higher as supply is getting tighter with the same being seen from New Zealand.
USA export prices also moved higher – mainly on good demand from Asia. In the US domestic market, meat and bone meal prices moved higher as did feathermeal and poultry meal. It is expected that prices could continue the uptrend for the next few weeks as US supply is seen to be dropping while demand remains good.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still all quiet in Peru as we all wait for the results of the initial IMARPE research cruise. Of course, the cruise that was expected to begin on February 15 had been rescheduled to February 20 and is expected to run until mid-March or later. It is going to be a while before we do hear any results.
The MSI Ceres report this week was saying that fishmeal demand in non-Peru markets is very good but then these markets don't have much fishmeal to offer.
There are no new next season sales to report from Peru as all is very, very, very quiet. No one seems to be doing much, except sweeping their warehouses and hosing down all the equipment – just getting ready for the next season.
Official fishmeal exports numbers for Peru for January 2020 show about 84,000 m/t exported with almost 55,000 m/t going to China with Germany, Vietnam and Japan taking 7 to 8,000 m/t each.
It is also reported that a couple of trade shows in Asia: Global Grain Asia and JCI Spring Raw Materials Market – have been delayed due to concerns over coronavirus.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,590 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,345 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,600 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,560
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1350/1370 m/t |
|
| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1460 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1510 m/t | 1500/1530 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1560 m/t | 1550/1560 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1610 m/t | 1600/1650 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1700/1750 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
|
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
|
| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2500/2600 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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