Weekly Report - Feb 08, 2020

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
-------------------------

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WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 08, 2020

 

Next week is WASDE week – will we be surprised or will all be as expected. There weren't any major changes in US grain and oilseed prices this week – corn prices were about unchanged although the export price did slip a little lower. Soybeans moved about USD 3 m/t higher on the week while soymeal was steady and all wheat prices moved a dollar or two higher.  

 

The trade was quite happy with the corn export figures this week a they were well above expected levels and corn happily put in a slightly higher week for prices. Soybean prices moved a little higher, probably due to continued anticipation of China business. On the futures side of soybeans and soymeal, a number of exports are saying that the market is oversold and that a decent rally could happen --- perhaps the WASDE will set of a soybean price rally.

 

The change in wheat prices seems to just be speculative activity as not much is happening to US wheat over the winter. Black Sea wheat prices did slip a little lower as US prices move a very little higher. Also with wheat, Algeria approved the import of Russian and this could change the North African wheat business --- Algeria had been the main buyer of French wheat, will they now switch to Russian.

 

The WASDE report next week should set the next price trend for US grains but I don't think that anyone is expecting anything earth shattering in the report – after all it is the middle of the winter, what can happen in February.

 

 

    Top 20 US Export Destinations for Grains and Oilseeds –

12 months to December 2019 – in m/t

 

Country	Wheat	Corn	Sorghum	Soybeans	Soymeal
Algeria	565,900
Bangladesh				1,136,800
Brazil	416,400
Burma					269,200
Cameroon			20,700
Canada		2,104,900	4,800	520,000	960,900
China		309,500	1,031,100	22,575,900
Colombia	646,400	3,911,600		637,600	1,251,800
Costa Rica		847,200
Djibouti			69,100
Dominican Rep		368,900			544,300
Ecuador	428,700				549,500
El Salvador		587,500			280,200
Egypt	827,900			2,789,900
Eritrea			60,300
Ethiopia	304,300		5,800
Germany				400,600
Guatemala	590,400	1,001,000			463,200
Honduras		674,400			291,000
Indonesia	1,232,800			2,420,700
Iraq	472,500
Israel		84,800			146,600
Italy	749,100		36,600	406,000	106,100
Jamaica		253,300
Japan	2,578,900	10,461,600	220,400	2,451,300	339,000
Kenya			18,900
Madagascar			10,000
Malaysia	496,400			643,000
Mexico	3,547,400	14,427,100	665,000	5,145,400	1,758,500
Morocco					308,000
Netherlands				2,381,800
New Zealand		126,600
Nigeria	2,113,000
Nicaragua		287,300		1,131,000
Panama		503,300			201,000
Peru	466,900	1,029,900		308,600	170,100
Philippines	2,925,500		700		2,137,000
Portugal				408,000
Saudi Arabia		623,500
Somalia			103,000
South Africa			77,000
South Korea	1,265,900	1,880,100	2,000	1,065,800
Spain			371,700	1,588,800
Sri Lanka					216,900
Sudan			110,600
Taiwan	1,263,600	1,182,400		1,845,000
Thailand	669,600			1,428,300	142,700
Trinidad		80,100
Venezuela					150,300
Vietnam				802,900	537,400
Yemen	739,800
Zimbabwe			4,000

@USDA GATS February 2020

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains

 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t	$25/26.00	Down $3.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $3.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $3.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Down $2.00	X
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Down $2.00	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$57/58.00		X
US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch)	$38/39.00	Down $3.00	X
US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t	$46/47.00		X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$41/42.00	Down $4.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$40/41.00	Down $4.00	X
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t	$37/38.00		X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$21/22.00	Down $3.00	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$20/21.00	Down $3.00	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$56/57.00		X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$53/54.00	Down $3.00	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$19/20.00		X
France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t	$41/42.00		X
France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$18/19.00		X
France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Down $1.00	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch)	$22/23.00		X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch)	$17/18.00		X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$32/33.00		X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$44/45.00		X
France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t	$19/20.00		X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$52/53.00		X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$33/34.00	Down $3.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$32/33.00	Down $3.00	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$28/29.00		X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$28/29.00		X
Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00		X
Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t	$45/46.00		X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t	$44/45.00		X
Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t	$44/45.00		X
Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t	$28/29.00		X
Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t	$47/48.00		X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Down $4.00	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Down $4.00	X
Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00		X
Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t	$42/43.00		X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t	$47/48.00		X
Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t	$31/32.00		X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	X
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$20/20.50		X
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip	$21/21.50		X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$35/36.00		X
Ukraine to China:  50,000 m/t	$36/37.00		X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$18/19.00		X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00		X
Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) -	$20/21.00		X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$16/17.00		X
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich)	$18/19.00		X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$25/26.00		X
Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$34/35.00		X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$36/37.00		X
Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00		X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$20/21.00		X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$23/24.00		X
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$24/25.00	Down $1.00	X
Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t	$24/25.00		X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$44/45.00		X
Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t	$18/19.00		X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$23/24.00		x
Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included)	415	Down 72	x
Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT)	-234	Down 214	x
Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT)	541	Down 33	X
Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT)	491	Down 33	X
Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT)	304	Down 28	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2020/May 2020

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf	USD 253/256	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf	USD 225/228	X
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 220/223	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 223/226	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 220/223	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 220/222	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver	USD 237/240	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 218/221	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 197/199	X
Barley, feed, Argentina, up river	USD 195/198	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 194/197	X
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA	USD 178/181	X
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 195/198	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 180/183	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 177/180	X
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic	USD 191/194	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 184/187	X
Corn, FOB Russia	USD 202/205	X
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t	USD 182/185	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 140/145	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 181/184	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 340/343	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 365/368	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 361/364	X
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 329/332	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 358/361	X
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil	USD 317/320	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 347/350	X
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 346/349	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 345/348	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 386/389	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD 565/570 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD 209/214 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD 208/213 m/t	X

 

US corn gluten meal (CGM) prices took about a USD 20 m/t jump higher this week as fishmeal buyers have turned to the highest protein vegetable alternative available. I am sure that they have also geared up their soymeal purchases but, due to the much smaller supply level, it doesn't take much of an increase in CGM demand to push prices higher.

 

Prices for both corn gluten feed and DDGS in the US were steady this week but we may see some increase in CNF prices and container lines are increasing their rates and there could be a shortage of available containers if business out of China slows down. While there are jillions of shipping containers in the world, the problem today could be that they are mostly in the wrong place and a change in container export logistics out of China could easily create container shortages.

 

For the time being we could be looking at higher CNF prices for corn by-products.  

 

 

 

USA exports of corn by-products – 12 months to December 2019 – major destinations and selected countries – in m/t

 

Country	Distillers Dried Grains DDGS 2019	Corn Gluten Meal   2019	Corn Gluten Feed   2019
Australia		3,100
Bangladesh	163,700	32,500
Burma		2,400	600
Canada	609,900	62,400
Chile		121,300
China	180,700
Colombia	206,700	87,200	30,900
Ecuador		3,100
Egypt	142,600	129,700	15,600
El Salvador		9,000
Guatemala		4,300	1,800
Honduras		7,600
Indonesia	915,200	150,800	10,000
Ireland	265,700		342,800
Israel	210,000		226,500
Japan	522,300	11,700
Malaysia		42,200
Mexico	2,030,400	18,100	29,100
Morocco	223,400		41,600
New Zealand	208,600		36,700
Peru		8,800
Philippines	265,200	2,200	700
Portugal			18,000
South Korea	1,251,300
Spain	103,400
Taiwan	244,000	37,600
Thailand	574,100	32,800	700
Turkey	575,500		125,600
UK	180,600		51,100
Vietnam	1,203,300	22,800	2,700
Other	710,400	6,200	500

@USDA GATS February 2020

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Australian MBM 45% protein    Australian MBM 50% protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia  USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia  USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein       USA Feathermeal, 80% protein    USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia  USD 380/400 to Indonesia  USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia  USD 650/670 m/t CNF Asia

  

Animal protein export markets were very quiet this week due to the extended Chinese New Year holidays. Add Chinese New Year to coronavirus and African Swine Fever and throw in some avian flu and there seem to be a good may reasons for the market to be quiet.

 

There has been a good deal of talk this week about the shortage of fishmeal and how this could easily push up the demand for animal protein – especially poultry meal.

 

In general, there was little or no change in prices this week, but we could see some upward pressure when China gets back from holidays and major buyers get back into the market.

 

The US domestic market was also quiet this week – if export demand slips, it will be tough to keep US domestic prices from dropping. We need a couple of weeks to sort out the coronavirus situation.

 

 

 

USA exports of animal protein – 12 months to December 2019 – major destinations – in m/t

 

Destination	Meat and bone meal – includes poultry and pork meal	Feather meal
Burma	5,200
Cambodia	1,600
Canada	49,100	7,100
Chile	39,200	43,400
China	143,200	4,100
Colombia	1,600
Dominican Rep		300
Ecuador	28,100	500
Guatemala	3,300
Honduras	7,500	1,500
Indonesia	240,900	28,000
Malaysia	12,000
Mexico	197,700
Peru	3,800	1,300
Philippines	37,100	300
Sri Lanka	2,100
Thailand	32,200
Vietnam	95,800	3,800
Total exports	902,000 Up 41.0%	90,400 Down 18.0%

@USDA GATS February 2020

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Another quiet week in the fishmeal business in Peru – just waiting for the start of the IMARPE research cruise and the new fishing quota for the south of Peru. Due to both the Chinese New Year holidays and the panic over Chinese coronavirus, there are just no buyers in the market for now.

 

There has been a great deal of talk about how coronavirus may affect 2020 fishmeal imports by China. It is easier to understand how coronavirus could affect any manufacturing operation that depends on parts supplies from China than it is to see how fishmeal will be affected --- but who knows perhaps the coronavirus panic will bring the Chinese economy to a shuddering halt.

 

The final China import numbers for fishmeal are out and 2019 has reached 1,418,652 m/t of fishmeal imports. The table below gives you all the details --- Peru represents close to 55% of all fishmeal imports. China's imports are about 3% down on 2018 but Peru's shipments are only down by 1.7%.

 

  

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,630
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,365
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,550
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,600
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,575

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65/66 protein	1350/1370 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1450/1460 m/t
67% protein 150 TVN	1500/1510 m/t	1500/1530 m/t
67% protein 120 TVN	1550/1560 m/t	1550/1560 m/t
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1600/1610 m/t	1600/1650 m/t
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1700/1720 m/t	1700/1750 m/t
Fish oil, crude bulk	2300/2350
Fish oil, crude drums	2350/2400
Fish oil, flexi tank	2450/2500
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon