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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office : +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile : +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT February 15, 2020
This week is a long weekend in the US with everyone closed on Monday for Veteran's day. On the week, corn prices were a little softer – down a couple of dollars m/t – while soybeans moved higher by about USD 3 m/t. All the wheat prices slid lower this week with US soft red winter wheat down by close to USD 6 mt while hard red winter wheat dropped by only about USD 2 m/t and spring wheat was down by close to USD 4 m/t.
With US corn, there is concern that Brazil and Argentina corn is coming to market and US export corn sales will dry up. There also seems to be some quite good prices for corn from the Black Sea – although that probably won't last. Some experts are saying that from March on most of the con export business will be from south America
There didn't seem to be much reason for a change in prices for soybeans – probably just people covering their short positions in advance of the US holiday weekend. There wasn't much news for soybeans this week.
Reading all the reports at the end of the week, there didn't seem to be much reason for wheat price to drop lower. Some say that lower export wheat prices were just a reaction to a lower USD.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $15/16.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax (6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: 30,000 (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $57/58.00 |
| X |
| US Gulf other Med: 30,000 MT(5,000 disch) | $40/41.00 | up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: 45,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $43/44.00 | up $2.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $42/43.00 | up $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $37/38.00 |
| X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $56/57.00 |
| X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $56/57.00 | up $3.00 | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh: 35/45,000 m/t | $41/42.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to India: 50,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4k disch) | $22/23.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3k disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: 35,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $52/53.00 |
| X |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $32/33.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Jordan: 50,000 m/t | $45/46.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: 50,000 m/t | $44/45.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to South Africa 50,000 m/t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $28/29.00 |
| X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to US Gulf: 25/35,000 m/t | $19/20.00 |
| X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: 25/30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $29/30.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 25/30,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $47/48.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Spain: 50,000 m/t | $31/32.00 |
| X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $33/34.00 |
| X |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $20/20.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t – round trip | $21/21.50 |
| X |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Ukraine to China: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Turkey - Izmir: coaster (1,000 disch) - | $34/35.00 | Corrected | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 m/t – (4,000 dich) | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $25/26.00 |
| X |
| Russia to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $34/35.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $36/37.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Libya: 25/35,000 m/t | $24/25.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $45/46.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – 30,000 m/t | $18/19.00 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $23/24.00 |
| x |
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| Baltic Dry Index – 40% Cape, 30% Panamax, 30% Supramax – no Handisize included) | 425 | Up 10 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index (100,000 plus DWT) | -294 | Down 60 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index (60,000 to 80,000 DWT) | 636 | Up 95 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index (50,000 to 60,000 DWT) | 470 | Down 21 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index (25,000 plus DWT) | 291 | Down 13 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR March 2020/May 2020
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 247/250 | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 221/224 | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 217/220 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 222/225 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 218/221 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 216/218 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 230/233 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 216/219 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 189/191 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, up river | USD 194/197 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 194/197 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 177/180 | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 194/197 | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 176/179 | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 178/181 | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 188/191 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 182/185 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 203/206 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/183 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 146/149 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 179/181 | X |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 336/339 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 361/364 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 362/365 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 330/333 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 360/363 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 325/328 | X |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 354/357 | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 350/353 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 351/354 | X |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 386/389 |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 575/580 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 207/210 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 208/211 m/t | x |
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Corn gluten meal prices remained strong this week as demand seemed to be running ahead of supply. For both DDGS and corn gluten feed both markets and prices remained quiet. There was some comment in the trade that there seems to be good demand developing for DDGS into Asia but so far it just seems to be talk rather than action. However, at USD 210 m.t CNF NOLA the recent DDGS export prices do seem to be very cost competitive with corn and soymeal.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Australian MBM 45% protein Australian MBM 50% protein Australian Feathermeal, 80% protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 340/350 m/t CNF Asia USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/640 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50% protein
USA Feathermeal, 80% protein USA Poultry by-product Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 440/460 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 to Indonesia USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/700 m/t CNF Asia |
There was little or no change in export meat and bone meal prices from most origins this week but there is the feeling that Australian prices will be moving higher as supply seems to be dwindling a little – especially for meat and bone meal.
In the US domestic market, the only strong animal protein is poultry meal as export demand seems to be pushing prices in the US higher. The Jacobsen report this week was saying that there seems to be a good chance that all animal proteins could be trending higher.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The Peru IMARPE research cruise should be chugging along with everyone looking closely at the spawning of the anchovy. This first cruise is about finished with a longer cruise coming up later.
No real change in fishmeal prices in Peru with Super prime said to be at USD 1700 to1750 m/t, if you can find any.
There is some concern in Peru about what coronavirus could do to the import demand for fishmeal in coming months -- no effect so far but that could change very quickly if coronavirus continues to grow.
The next aquafeed season starts in China in April but China is said to be well covered for fishmeal needs for April/May but needing more supplies for June/July.
There is a great deal of discussion in Peru about the IMARPE situation and how accurate their numbers really are. The last season's quota seems to have been an error based on IMARPE numbers that were too high. It will be interesting to see what the next season will bring or how much of a house cleaning will be done at IMARPE.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,610 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,360 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,550 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,600 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,570
|
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65/66 protein | 1350/1370 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1450/1460 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1500/1510 m/t | 1500/1530 m/t |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1560 m/t | 1550/1560 m/t |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1610 m/t | 1600/1650 m/t |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1700/1720 m/t | 1700/1750 m/t |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | No prices |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2020 Wayne S. Bacon
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