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Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 26, 2022
This week was a limited work week in the USA with Thursday being the Thanksgiving holiday and many in the trade also taking a Friday holiday – so it was a reasonably calm week for US markets.
Both corn and soymeal were unchanged on the week while soybeans did move higher by about USD 4 m/t. All US wheat was lower with Soft Red Winter down by close to USD 10 m/t and Hard Red Winter down by about USD 5 m/t – US spring wheat was also about USD 5 m/t lower.
There was some talk that US corn prices could move higher as Ukraine shipments are slipping a bit and demand for US corn exports could react. Unfortunately for US corn exports, prices from Brazil and Argentina are still more competitive. However, the US export corn price is getting closer as the logistics problems improve --- the basis to NOLA has dropped by about USD 30 m/t in the last few weeks which is getting US corn closer and closer to being able to compete. The US freight cost advantage to some markets is just not quite enough to move the buyers to US corn.
US wheat prices are said to be lower due to a stronger US dollar and poor wheat export numbers. The very, very large Russian wheat crop is still hanging over the market. Reports from the Black Sea say that, although the grain corridor has been renewed for 120 days, Russian ship/cargo inspectors are working very slowly which has caused serious shipment delays.
US soybeans are expected to face serious price competition from Argentina depending on what the Argentina government does with its soybean export program. Of course there is also the giant Brazil soybean crop that will hit the market and could swing much of the bean buying to Brazil.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $50/51.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $51/52.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $52/53.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $55/56.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
|
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
|
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $71/73.00 | Steady |
|
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $73/74.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | N/A |
|
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $74/75.00 | Up $4.00 |
|
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | N/A |
|
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $55/56.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $54/55.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $55/56.00 | Steady |
|
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|
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $58/59.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
|
|
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $69/70.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29/30.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $64/65.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1324 | Up 135 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1613 | Up 511 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1479 | Down 115 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1182 | Up 12 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 745 | Down 18 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 2786 | Down 254 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2022/February 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 350>> 345 March |
|
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 415>> 405 March |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 285/290 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 315/320 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 320>>300 March |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 337/340 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 380/385 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 280/285 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 309/311 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 350/355 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 280/285 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 280/285 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 330>>310 March |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 335>>330 March |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 285<<300 March |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295<<300 March |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 332/335 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 255>>240 March |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 235>>225 March |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 290/295 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 370/375 |
|
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 515>>475 March |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 550<<510 March |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 480>>445 April |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 510/515 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 470>>450 March |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 585>>575 March |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 590>>540 March |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 600>>550 March |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 780/790 m/t |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/310 m/t |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 325/335 m/t |
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Due to the holidays this week it was difficult to get updated prices on corn byproducts with the indication prices shown above being about the most accurate that we could source on Friday.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Well --- here we go – a new quota of 2.283 million m/t –higher than most had expected. The first couple of days of fishing have been done with the 2-day catch at almost 76,000 m/t. The first few days of fishing – Nov 23 to 27 are called exploratory fishing days with the full blown fishing season starting on November 28.
This level of quota, if all landed, is expected to yield about 544,000 m/t of fishmeal. This year's quota is about 240,000 m/t higher than last year so may be a challenge to land everything before the season ends on January 31, 2023. About 200,000 m/t of fishmeal have been presold so it will take a while to cover the presales and get on to new business.
The big concern in Peru is what effect the new outbreak of Covid in China may have on the Chinese economy, consumption levels and fishmeal demand. China seems to be locking down whenever there is an outbreak and if it gets serious enough the lockdown will be widespread.
Since China is Peru's major fishmeal destination – 78.84% of shipments for 10 months of 2022 – whatever happens in China will have a major effect on Peru and world export fishmeal prices.
Because it is early days with the new quotas and the new fishing season, there has been no activity from buyers or sellers, but the catch over the next few days will set the price/buying/selling direction. Experts are hoping for some very good days so that a major part of the fishing can be done in November and December rather than in January when the weather and the fishing can be much more difficult.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,190 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,715 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,710 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,750 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,090 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1520/1530 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1570/1580 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1620/1630 m/t | 1640/1650 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1670/1680 m/t | 1680/1690 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1720/1730 m/t | 1720/1730 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4000/1000 | 3700/3800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4400/4500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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