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Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Global Grain 2022 is coming in 3 days in Geneva --- see you there.
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 12, 2022
Grain and oilseed prices finished the week with lower prices levels which experts say was caused by the lower US dollar. Corn ended the week down by about USD 9 m/t with soybeans down by around USD 5 m/t, soymeal down by close to USD 10 m/t and US spring wheat down by USD 3 m/t with winter wheat down between USD 5 and 10 m/t depending on the type. However, lower prices on the week were moderated by rallies in soybeans and wheat on Friday --- so, although prices were lower the week did finish on a strong note.
USA corn export prices are still too high to take any business away from Brazil but this is not too important to the domestic US corn market as corn demand for ethanol is strong as is demand for animal feed for winter supplies. The hoped for US corn business to the EU, to replace Ukraine supplies, has just not happened as US supplies are just not competitive for now.
While soybeans were down on the week the trade seems to be longer term bullish and is looking at increased sales to China. Soybeans did make a good move higher on Friday as the market seemed to feel that beans shouldn't be any lower and with higher US soybean crush numbers expected next week we could see soybeans acting more bullish.
The weakness in wheat prices early in the week became a buying opportunity for many, which gave Friday a strong finish. There is also some concern in the US about low soil water levels for winter crops and the risk of early frost. On the international side of wheat, almost every major wheat buyer opened a wheat tender this week as no one wants to get caught short of wheat in a year of Black Sea uncertainty.
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Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $55/56.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $56/57.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $56/57.00 | Revised |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $57/58.00 | Revised |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $58/59.00 | Revised |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $40/41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
|
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Revised |
|
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Revised |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $55/56.00 | Revised |
|
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Revised |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Revised |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $71/73.00 | Steady |
|
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $73/74.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | N/A |
|
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Revised |
|
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | N/A |
|
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Jordan | $36/37.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29/30.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Down $2.00 |
|
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $54/55.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $56/57.00 |
|
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $58/59.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 |
|
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
|
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Up $!.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $27/28.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29/30.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1355 | Up 32 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1544 | Up 201 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1637 | Down 63 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1213 | Down 55 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 787 | Down 49 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 3185 | Down 179 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2022/February 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 365>> 358 February |
|
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 425>> 415 February |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 300/305 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 315/320 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 315/320 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 335/338 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 370/375 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 280/285 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 302/305 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 345/350 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 285/290 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 290/295 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 320>>315 February |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 330/335 |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 280/295 February |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 290/295 February |
|
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 346/349 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 270>>255 February |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 240/250 |
|
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/290 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 373/377 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 510>>485 February |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 545<<520 February |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 475>>465 February |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 510/520 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 480>>460 February |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 610>>600 February |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 600>>550 February |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 630>>560 February |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 780/790 m/t |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/315 m/t |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 335>>325 m/t Feb |
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Corn byproduct prices all seemed reasonably steady this week – even with corn prices moving lower. If the lower corn prices continue, then we could see some weakness in DDGS and corn gluten meal.
It also looks like the Mississippi river situation is improving, at least a little, which is moving barge rates lower and should affect CNF Nola prices for DDGS.
Export prices remain steady but logistics backups are improving making early 2023 look like a good time to buy.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still no word so far on the new fishing quota and we are all getting anxious. Looks like the later the quota the lower the trade estimates become. This week most are not at a maximum quota level of 2.0 million m/t. ---- but this is all just guess-work for now.
Prices are steady to a little higher in Peru but with little buying interest and few sellers the prices probably haven't changed at all.
Trade reports say that China's current fishmeal stocks are very good and should easily carry the demand through the Chinese New Year period in late January. New shipments from Peru wont arrive until after the New Year.
So, we are just quietly waiting for a new fishing quota number that will bring some excitement to this very quiet market.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,085 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,650 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,700 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,740 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,980 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1470/1480 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1520/1530 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1570/1580 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1620/1630 m/t | 1640/1660 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1670/1680 m/t | 1670/1680 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3900/4000 | 3700/3800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4400/4500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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