Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,
Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Global Grain 2022 is coming in 10 days in Geneva --- see you there.
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 05, 2022
The changes in direction by Russia over the grain export corridor was the major factor in the wheat business this week --- certainly caused a great spread in prices with ups and downs and more ups coming every day. Wheat finished the week higher on Black Sea concerns.
Corn prices ended up being unchanged for the week while soybeans moved higher by almost USD 25 m/t. US winter wheat finished the week up by about USD 9 m/t with US spring wheat up by around USD 5 m/t.
The rally in soybeans was tied to the USA/China discussions and the speculation that China will be in the market for large amounts of soybeans. Even if China's bean needs don't all come from the USA, any increase in demand leads to higher prices.
Wheat prices were up strictly on the Black Sea situation --- it is so fluid a situation that most expect that price rallies are much more likely than price declines --- uncertainty tends to lead to higher prices.
Next week is USDA WASDE week again – the weeks sure flash past – the trade doesn't seem to be expecting any big surprises or changes in the WASDE. Seems that, in years past, not much happened with the November report.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $52/53.00 |
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US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $52/53.00 |
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US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $53/54.00 |
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US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 |
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US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $42/43.00 | Steady |
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US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $46/47.00 | Steady |
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US Gulf other Med: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $40/41.00 | Steady |
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US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
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US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $58.59.00 |
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US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52/53.00 |
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US Gulf China: Panamax | $51/52.00 |
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US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Down $2.00 |
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US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
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US PNW Japan: Panamax | $37/36.00 | Steady |
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US PNW China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady |
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US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
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US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $71/73.00 | ??? |
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US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $73/74.00 | ??? |
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France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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France/Germany to Bangladesh | N/A |
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France/Germany to China: Panamax | $59/60.00 |
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France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $34/35.00 |
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France/Germany to India: Panamax | N/A |
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France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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France/Germany to Jordan | $36/37.00 | Steady |
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France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29/30.00 | Steady |
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France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady |
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France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $45/46.00 | Steady |
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France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $54/55.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to China: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Down $2.00 |
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Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Down $2.00 |
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Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 |
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Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $53/54.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Libya: Handi | $56/57.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $56/57.00 |
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Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 |
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Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $54/55.00 | Steady |
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Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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Brazil to China: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Down $4.00 |
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Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $46/47.00 | Down $4.00 |
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Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
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Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady |
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Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $56/57.00 | Steady |
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Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 |
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Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $67/68.00 | Up $1.00 |
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Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Steady |
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Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Steady |
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Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Up $2.00 |
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Australia to Europe: Panamax | $38/39.00 | Up $2.00 |
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Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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Black Sea to China: Panamax | $64/65.00 |
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Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
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Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 |
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Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Up $1.00 |
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Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $31/32.00 | Down $1.00 |
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Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
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Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29/30.00 | Down $1.00 |
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Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
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Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
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Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 |
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Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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Baltic Dry Index | 1323 | Down 211 |
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Baltic Capesize Index | 1343 | Down 327 |
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Baltic Panamax Index | 1700 | Down 117 |
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Baltic Supramax Index | 1268 | Down 215 |
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Baltic Handisize Index | 836 | Down 61 |
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Global Container Index - Freightos | 3364 | Up 24 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2022/February 2023
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 378>> 370 February |
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Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 425>> 420 February |
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Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 300/305 |
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Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 315/320 |
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Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 330>>310 February |
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Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 340/343 |
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Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 375/380 |
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Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 285>>260 February |
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Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 305/308 |
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Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 315/320 |
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Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 285/290 |
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Barley, feed, Australia | USD 290/295 |
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Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 342>>320 February |
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Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 345>>340 February |
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Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 280/300 February |
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Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295/305 February |
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Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 353/356 |
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Corn, FOB Romania | USD 275/280 |
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Corn, FOB Russia | USD 260/270 |
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Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
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Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/290 |
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Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 370/375 |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 510>>495 February |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 545<<530 February |
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Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot | No prices |
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Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 490>>470 February |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 530/535 |
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Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 490>>465 February |
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Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 620>>605 February |
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Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 610>>580 February |
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Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 635>>575 February |
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Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 780/790 m/t |
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Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 310/315 m/t |
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DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>330 m/t Feb |
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USA nearby DDGS prices were higher aging this week due to increased winter feed demand in the US and slightly lower production numbers. The problems in the Mississippi river are still keeping export prices strong with November up by USD 11 m/t according to the US Grains Council --- but prices do weaken a bit as we get into early 2023.
Corn gluten meal export prices have slipped lower this week as improved logistics helped to bring the cost down. Egypt has been a major buyer of CGM but the recent currency devaluation and continuing payment problems are keeping major US suppliers out of the Egypt market.
Corn gluten feed was also a little lower this week – also logistics related.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Here we are, still waiting for the new Peru central and north quota number and the date for the next fishing season. Trade sources seem to feel that fishing will begin about November 15 with the quota to be at least 2.0 million m/t.
Very little is happening in Peru as everyone is waiting for the quota announcement. Buyers and sellers are both out of the market for now, as we all just wait.
Trade reports also noted this week that China has a high level of fishmeal stocks on hand along with quite a number of preseason fishmeal purchases in Peru --- perhaps this will lead to a slow start to new business for the next fishing season.
MSI Ceres mentioned in its weekly report on how Ecuador is becoming a major import destination for Peru fishmeal and shrimp feed --- all due to very strong growth in the aqua industry in Ecuador. While Ecuador is not as large a buyer as China, as MSI Ceres points out, it is great to have a serious buyer very close by.
Prices were steady again this week.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,085 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,650 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,700 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,740 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,980 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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67% protein standard steam | 1470/1480 m/t |
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67% protein 150 TVN | 1520/1530 m/t |
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67% protein 120 TVN | 1570/1580 m/t | 1600/1620 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1620/1630 m/t | 1640/1660 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1670/1680 m/t | 1670/1680 |
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Fish oil, crude bulk | 3900/4000 | 3700/3800 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4400/4500 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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