Saturday, November 05, 2022

Weekly report -- November 05, 2022

 

     Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

Corporate Head Office: 1st Floor, Building A, Caves Corporate Center,

Blake Road and West Bay Street, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564   

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

Global Grain 2022 is coming in 10 days in Geneva --- see you there.

 

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 05, 2022

 

The changes in direction by Russia over the grain export corridor was the major factor in the wheat business this week --- certainly caused a great spread in prices with ups and downs and more ups coming every day. Wheat finished the week higher on Black Sea concerns.

 

Corn prices ended up being unchanged for the week while soybeans moved higher by almost USD 25 m/t. US winter wheat finished the week up by about USD 9 m/t with US spring wheat up by around USD 5 m/t.

 

The rally in soybeans was tied to the USA/China discussions and the speculation that China will be in the market for large amounts of soybeans. Even if China's bean needs don't all come from the USA, any increase in demand leads to higher prices.

 

Wheat prices were up strictly on the Black Sea situation --- it is so fluid a situation that most expect that price rallies are much more likely than price declines --- uncertainty tends to lead to higher prices.

 

Next week is USDA WASDE week again – the weeks sure flash past – the trade doesn't seem to be expecting any big surprises or changes in the WASDE. Seems that, in years past, not much happened with the November report.  

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$30/31.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$30/31.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$52/53.00

 

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$52/53.00

 

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$53/54.00

 

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$41/42.00

Up $1.00

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$42/43.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$46/47.00

Steady

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$45/46.00

Steady

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$40/41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to India: Panamax

$47/48.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$58.59.00

 

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$52/53.00

 

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$51/52.00

 

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65/66.00

Steady

 

US PNW Egypt: Panamax

$59/60.00

Down $2.00

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$39/40.00

Steady

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$37/36.00

Steady

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$36/37.00

Steady

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$46/47.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$71/73.00

???

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$73/74.00

???

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$30/31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Bangladesh

N/A

 

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$59/60.00

 

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$34/35.00

 

 

France/Germany to India: Panamax

N/A

 

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$45/46.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$36/37.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$29/30.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$59/60.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to South Africa: Handi

$45/46.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$33/34.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$63/64.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$54/55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$53/54.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$54/55.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$60/61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$47/48.00

Up $1.00

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$53/54.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$56/57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$54/55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$59/60.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61/62.00

Steady

 

Argentina to India: Panamax

$62/63.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax

$66/67.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$60/61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$33/34.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$56/57.00

 

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$47/48.00

Up $1.00

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$54/55.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$57/58.00

Steady

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$45/46.00

Down $4.00

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$46/47.00

Down $4.00

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$49/50.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$51/52.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$56/57.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61/62.00

 

 

Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax

N/A

 

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$67/68.00

Up $1.00

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$51/52.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$65/66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$40/41.00

Up $2.00

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$38/39.00

Up $2.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$64/65.00

 

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$62/63.00

Steady

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$27/28.00

Up $1.00

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$30/31.00

Steady

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$62/63.00

Up $1.00

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$31/32.00

Down $1.00

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$30/31.00

Down $1.00

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$29/30.00

Down $1.00

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$39/40.00

Steady

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$32/33.00

Steady

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$60/61.00

Steady

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$28/29.00

Up $1.00

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$57/58.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

1323

Down 211

 

Baltic Capesize Index

1343

Down 327

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1700

Down 117

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1268

Down 215

 

Baltic Handisize Index

836

Down 61

 

 

 

 

 

Global Container Index - Freightos

3364

Up 24

 

   

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2022/February 2023

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

 USD 378>> 370 February

 

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

 USD 425>> 420 February  

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 300/305

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 315/320

 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

 USD 330>>310 February

 

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

 USD 340/343    

 

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 375/380   

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

 USD 285>>260 February   

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

 USD 305/308

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

 USD 315/320

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

 USD 285/290

 

   Barley, feed, Australia

 USD 290/295

 

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

 USD 342>>320 February

 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 345>>340 February

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

 USD 280/300 February

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

 USD 295/305 February

 

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

 USD 353/356

 

   Corn, FOB Romania

 USD 275/280

 

   Corn, FOB Russia

 USD 260/270

 

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

 USD 255/260

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

 USD 280/290

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

 USD 370/375    

 

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

 USD 510>>495 February  

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

 USD 545<<530 February

 

   Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam – spot

 No prices

 

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

 USD 490>>470 February   

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

 USD 530/535

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 490>>465 February

 

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

 USD 620>>605 February

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

 USD 610>>580 February

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

 USD 635>>575 February  

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

 No prices

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 780/790 m/t

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 310/315 m/t

 

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

 USD 340>>330 m/t Feb

 

 

 

 

 

USA nearby DDGS prices were higher aging this week due to increased winter feed demand in the US and slightly lower production numbers. The problems in the Mississippi river are still keeping export prices strong with November up by USD 11 m/t according to the US Grains Council --- but prices do weaken a bit as we get into early 2023.

 

Corn gluten meal export prices have slipped lower this week as improved logistics helped to bring the cost down. Egypt has been a major buyer of CGM but the recent currency devaluation and continuing payment problems are keeping major US suppliers out of the Egypt market.

 

Corn gluten feed was also a little lower this week – also logistics related.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Here we are, still waiting for the new Peru central and north quota number and the date for the next fishing season. Trade sources seem to feel that fishing will begin about November 15 with the quota to be at least 2.0 million m/t.

 

Very little is happening in Peru as everyone is waiting for the quota announcement. Buyers and sellers are both out of the market for now, as we all just wait.

 

Trade reports also noted this week that China has a high level of fishmeal stocks on hand along with quite a number of preseason fishmeal purchases in Peru --- perhaps this will lead to a slow start to new business for the next fishing season.

 

MSI Ceres mentioned in its weekly report on how Ecuador is becoming a major import destination for Peru fishmeal and shrimp feed --- all due to very strong growth in the aqua industry in Ecuador. While Ecuador is not as large a buyer as China, as MSI Ceres points out, it is great to have a serious buyer very close by.

 

Prices were steady again this week.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

2,085

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,650

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

1,700

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

1,740

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,980

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   67% protein standard steam

1470/1480 m/t

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1520/1530 m/t

 

   67% protein 120 TVN

1570/1580 m/t

1600/1620

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1620/1630 m/t

1640/1660

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

1670/1680 m/t

1670/1680

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

3900/4000

3700/3800

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

 

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

 

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

4400/4500

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees, or affiliates.

 

Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon

 

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