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Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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Representative Office : Phone +33.6.8068.4564
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
The time at Global Grain 2022 in Geneva was great. So many people were there that we had not seen in person since before Covid. While we all got used to Zooming there is nothing like face-to-face which made Global Grain worthwhile. And the presentations were very good too.
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT November 19, 2022
The Black Sea grain corridor situation had prices moving up and down and back this week as we all tried to get a good idea of what was actually happening. For now it does look like the next 120 days will be business as usual from Ukraine and even Russia – well, as usual as it can be.
US corn ended the week only up by a couple of dollars while soybeans slipped lower by close to USD 8 m/t – soymeal was steady on the week. US wheat prices moved around quite a bit this week and ended up with US winter wheat down by about USD 5 m/t while US spring wheat was steady on the week.
Looking at all this weeks reports and after listening to speakers at Global Grain 2022 in Geneva, the future for grain/oilseed business out of the Ukraine does not look at all well. Due to a lack of capital and farmland and facilities that can't be used the next Ukraine crops are expected to be at least 40% down on the last crop. Shipments cannot continue at a high level – even with a grain corridor – if there is greatly reduced production. Ukraine's wheat shipments will be hit first as winter wheat harvests will be down and elevators may be empty. With corn it all depends on how many millions of tons are left from previous crops as the new crop in 2023 will certainly be much lower.
2023 will probably be as tough and challenging a year as 2022.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $50/51.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $50/51.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $51/52.00 | Down $5.00 |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $52/53.00 | Down $4.00 |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $53/54.00 | Down $4.00 |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $55/56.00 | Down $3.00 |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $59/60.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $58/59.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65/66.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $51/52.00 | Down $4.00 |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Steady |
|
| US PNW China: Panamax | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $46/47.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $71/73.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $73/74.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31/32.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | N/A |
|
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $70/71.00 | Up $4.00 |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | N/A |
|
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45/46.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37/38.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46/47.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33/34.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63/64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $55/56.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $53/54.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $54/55.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $54/55.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Up $1.00 |
|
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62/63.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66/67.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60/61.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57/58.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Steady |
|
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $55/56.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $58/59.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $47/48.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $48/49.00 | Up $2.00 |
|
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $49/50.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
|
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $68/69.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Steady |
|
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Down $!.00 |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $52/53.00 | Corrected |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | $67/68.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $65/66.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61/62.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30/31.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $30/31.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $29/30.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $39/40.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32/33.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $63/64.00 | Up $3.00 |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $28/29.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57/58.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1189 | Down 166 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1122 | Down 422 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1594 | Down 43 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1170 | Down 43 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 763 | Down 24 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 3040 | Down 145 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR December 2022/February 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 355>> 350 March |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 415>> 405 March |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 290/295 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 315/320 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 325>>320 March |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 344/348 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 380/385 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 280/285 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 315/317 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 360/365 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 285/290 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 285/290 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 350>>310 March |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 345>>335 March |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 285<<295 March |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 300>>295 March |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 334/337 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 260>>250 March |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 240>>230 March |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 255/260 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 290/295 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 368/371 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 500>>470 March |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 535<<505 March |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 470>>440 April |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 515/520 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 465>>445 March |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 595>>570 March |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 600>>540 March |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 620>>545 March |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 775/785 m/t |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 290/300 m/t |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 320/325 m/t |
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USA export prices for all corn byproducts slipped a little lower this week – some of which was due to improved inland transportation in the US --- although a possible railway strike in the USA could have a serious effect on exports by container.
There has been a lot of new interest from Egypt for corn gluten meal but most shippers are staying away from Egypt business due to the continued serious payment problems. Sellers are saying that the need 100% prepayment for any business to Egypt – at least for any business that is cash Dox at an Egypt bank.
With most experts looking for lower corn prices in months to come then we should also see some weakness in corn byproducts into early 2023.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still no word on the latest quota but the trade says that it will be before the 23rd of November as the last IMARPE report is expected on November 20.
The latest El Nina/Nino report shows that nothing much will happen in Peru. Details published by MSI Ceres show that the situation will be "neutral to weak" for both Nina and Nino. So, don't expect any trouble for the season.
Everyone is just sitting and waiting – with much anticipation – for what the next quota will be, both buyers and sellers are out of the market for now just waiting for the quota.
The latest number in Peru fishmeal exports shows about 1.01 million m/t exported to the 10 months to the end of October with 795,000 m/t going to China, followed by 58,000 m/t to both Germany and Ecuador and 34,400 m/t to Japan, 18,300 m/t to Taiwan and 15,300 m/t to Vietnam --- all other markets are quite small. Overall, Asia takes 86% of all Peru's fishmeal exports.
MSI Ceres published an interesting chart from the FAO on fishmeal inclusion rates in fish feed looking back to 1999 and forward to 2030. Without exception the information shows fishmeal inclusion rates dropping further for both fishmeal and fishoil. The FAO information also shows world fishmeal production increasing from 4.9 million m/t today to 5.7 mm/t by 2031 with the average price per ton increasing by about 12% by 2031. It is also interesting to note that fishmeal consumption will continue to match production --- so while fishmeal fish feed inclusion rates may be dropping overall usage will increase as the aquafeed and animal feed markets grow.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,210 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,710 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,710 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,750 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,140 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1470/1480 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1520/1530 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1570/1580 m/t | 1600/1620 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1620/1630 m/t | 1640/1660 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1670/1680 m/t | 1670/1680 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 3900/4000 | 3700/3800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 4400/4500 |
|
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2022 Wayne S. Bacon
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