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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 08, 2023
This weekend we have Easter, Passover and Ramadan religious days all coming together which tends to cause some price excitement in grain and oilseed markets. No buyer/seller wants to be uncovered over a long weekend that is 4 or 5 days in some countries and 3 days in others.
Looking at USA prices overall it was a down week for everything with much of the drop coming on Thursday as the US headed into the long weekend with markets closed on Friday. Corn prices were down by about USD 7 m/t on the week with soybeans down by about USD 5 m/t and soymeal down by close to USD 13 m/t. All US wheat was lower too with winter wheat down by about USD 6 m/t and spring wheat down by close to USD 9 m/t.
The market seemed to be surprised by the drop in US hard red winter wheat as the growing conditions are still not good with rainfall badly needed so next week may be a stronger week for HRW prices. In general, wheat prices seem to be following lower Black Sea wheat prices which have been going lower led by Russia.
Corn prices are said to be lower on weather forecasts for drier and warmer weather which will allow farmers to get out and get planting. Corn export sales have not been all that great which also helps move prices lower.
Soybean prices were also lower on the improving planting weather and, like corn, soybean exports for the week were down, although shipments for the year are ahead of forecasts. Soybeans are also facing strong competition from the Brazil crop, especially with Brazil forecasting 21% higher soybean exports. There was a comment in trade reports that USA soybean ending stocks may be lower than expected which could put upward pressure on soybean and soymeal prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $28.00 | Up $1.00 |
| $28.00 | ||
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $34.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $56.00 | Up $4.00 |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $56.00 | Up $4.00 |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $1.00 |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $53.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| There are some major adjustments to freight rates from Argentina and Brazil this week based upon new freight estimates published in several trade sources.
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $49.00 | Adjusted |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $53.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Up $5.00 |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $54.00 | Adjusted |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $40.00 | Adjusted |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $48.00 | Adjusted |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $51.00 | Adjusted |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $43.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $40.00 | Adjusted |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $49.00 | Adjusted |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Adjusted |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $6.00 |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Up $6.00 |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $40.00 | Adjusted |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Adjusted |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $62.00 | Adjusted |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $40.00 | Adjusted |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Adjusted |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $49.00 | Up $2.00 |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $59.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $61 Ukraine $65 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $57 Ukraine $62 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $50 Ukraine $56 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $21 Russia $25 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia $34 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $55 Russia $60 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33 Russia $37 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32 Russia $36 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62 Russia $67 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $33 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $53.00 | Steady |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $85.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1560 | Up 171 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 2041 | Up 376 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1851 | Up 216 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1161 | Down 37 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 643 | Down 44 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1416 | Down 65 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2023/June 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 285>>280 Aug |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 382>>370 Aug |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 260>>250 Aug |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275>>265 Aug |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 280>>270 Aug |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 285>>280 Aug |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 330/335 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 255>>250 Aug |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 275/278 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 285/290 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 245/250 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 297>>269 Aug |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 319>>293 Aug |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 275>>245 Aug |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 285>>250 Aug |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 275/278 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 265/270 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/260 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 300/310 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 345>>334 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 530>>525 Aug |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 560>>550 Aug |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 505>>500 Aug |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 525/530 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 480>>460 Aug |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 585>>560 Aug |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 570<<590 Aug |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 505<<530 Aug |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 480/485 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 770/775 |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270/280 |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 340>>325 July |
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Weakness in corn and soymeal prices has helped to move most corn byproduct prices lower. Corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were both down by about USD 30 m/t this week which should get some strong export interest from buyers.
DDGS nearby prices were higher due to some supply problems in the US but looking out a little further the DDGS prices were steady – perhaps we will see some DDGS price weakness this week.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still waiting to hear what the next fishing quota will be --- trader estimates range from 1.8 million m/t to as high as 2.8 mm/t. Looking at some numbers from MSI CERES, the quota has been up around 2.8 mm/t several times in the past 10 years, but the actual catch has only reached or exceeded 2.8 mm/t once back in 2015 when the catch reached 3.2 mm/t. It looks like, on average, the catch for the season could be around 2.4 mm/t maximum, no matter what the quota is set at. Of course, this is all just based on averages over 10 years.
The trade seems to feel that fishing will start this coming week but as we are in the Easter holidays there have been no announcements on quotas and dates. Everything may just happen on Monday when Peru is back to work.
Still no business being done in Peru fishmeal, but I do see that prices in Europe have moved higher. Could they be expecting a low quota and higher prices?
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,085 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,750 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,815 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,845 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,065 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1700/1710 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1750/1760 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1810 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1850/1860 m/t | 1830/1840 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t | 1900/1910 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4300/4400 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 5800/5900 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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