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Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 01, 2023
The rally in prices this week was all due to the USDA report on planting intentions and stocks on hand. Soybean planting is expected to be up slightly this year but stocks are seen as lower than expected which help get the market excited. Trade reports are not too sure that this week's price rally will extend into next week. Once the report excitement cools of the prices could slip a little.
Corn was also higher due to lower than expected stocks, although planting intentions do show about a 4% increase in planted area which would seem to be more bearish than bullish. However, all is not too well in Argentina and Brazil which is probably enough too keep corn prices steady to higher.
USA spring wheat was higher due to lower planting expectations – the lowest since 1974. Hard red winter prices rallied on increased export demand and on the worry about the continuing drought in major portions of the wheat belt. Wheat prices do seem to want to move higher, except for soft red winter, and any little international news that affects wheat supply will certainly help increase world wheat prices.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $27.00 | Steady |
| $27.00 | ||
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $32.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $35.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $36.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $53.00 | Steady |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $31.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $83.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $30.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $71.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $73.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $70.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $72.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $43.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $71.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $70.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $42.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $43.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $69.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $78.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $77.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $47.00 | Up $1.00 |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $58.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $56 Ukraine $61 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $57 Ukraine $62 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $49 Ukraine $54 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $20 Russia $26 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia $34 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $61 Russia $65 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $31 Russia $42 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $30 Russia $41 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $33 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $53.00 | Down $10.00 |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $85.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1389 | Down 100 |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1665 | Down 2171 |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1635 | Up 63 |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1198 | Down 134 |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 687 | Down 16 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1481 | Up 18 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR April 2023/June 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 289>>281 July |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 390>>377 July |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/255 |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 275>>265 July |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 275/280 |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 289/292 |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 320/325 |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 245/255 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 292/295 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 290/295 |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 255/260 |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 295>>275 Aug |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 320>>300 Aug |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 285>>245 Aug |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 295>>245 Aug |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 305/308 |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 265/270 |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240/245 |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 305/315 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 348>>337 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 550>>540 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 580>>570 July |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 525>>510 July |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 545/550 |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 510>>500 July |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 590>>565 Aug |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 565<<580 Aug |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 530<<550 Aug |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 480/485 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 805/815 |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 300/305 |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 330>>325 July |
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Prices were a little up and a little down this week as everything was following along with soymeal. Prices for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten fed moved a little higher but DDGS seemed to be steady to a little lower as the DDGS supply looks very good at present and the Mississippi River barge rates dropped a little. According to the US Grains Council weekly report, container rate have also moved lower which is brining CNF costs down by about USD 7 m/t.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The IMARPE research cruise is reported to have been completed --- now we are all just waiting for the results and the mew fishing quota. Some in the trade feel that fishing could begin in the first half of April --- perhaps right after the Easter Holidays which end on April 10.
Not much business being done these days as everyone is waiting to see what the new quota will be.
Prices in China are said to be lower as daily off-take is lower than it has been which has caused sellers to lower the prices a little. Market reports say that prices could move lower in China if the daily demand doesn't pick up. However, there doesn't seem to be any weakness at all in the prices indicated for next seasons supply of fishmeal.
The next IFFO Members Meeting is scheduled for May 01 to 03 in Madrid, Spain. As usual it looks like a very good agenda. https://www.iffo.com/members-meeting-2023/programme-home is where all the details can be seen.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,050 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,730 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,790 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,820 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,030 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1700/1710 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1750/1760 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1810 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1850/1860 m/t | 1830/1840 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t | 1900/1910 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4300/4400 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 5800/5900 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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