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Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 22, 2023
Trade reports suggest that the weakness in US prices was related to the very fast pace of US planting and the record-breaking Brazil crops – this effected mainly corn and soybean prices.
There is a lot of talk about what effect the import ban on Ukraine grain by a number of EU countries will have on buying patterns in the EU. Will the USA see increased export interest from the EU. Other than some panic buying last year there is very little US corn business to the EU, except for Spain and Portugal. Perhaps the new restrictions will see increased demand for US corn – in particular from the lakes.
With the US exports of soybeans to China being up by 43% this year it may be tough to understand lower prices but when the late harvesting Brazil crop gets going full speed there will be lots of soybeans around for every bit of demand. It is also interesting to see that some low-priced Brazil soybeans could be heading to the US this season.
The situation in the Black Sea would normally push wheat prices higher but this week improved weather conditions in the US were a bigger factor in the US wheat market. The weather and rainfall look to be better in parts of th wheat belt but many trade reports are saying that much more rainfall is needed to get the condition up to a better level – especially for US hard red winter wheat.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29.00 | Steady | X |
| $29.00 | Steady | X | |
| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $32.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $35.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $36.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $38.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $55.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $54.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $53.00 | Steady | X |
| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady | X |
| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to China: Panamax | $49.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $48.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $48.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $43.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to China: Panamax | $46.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Down $1.00 | X |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $60 Ukraine $64 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $59 Ukraine $64 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $53 Ukraine $59 |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $25 Russia $30 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia $33 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $55 Russia $60 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33 Russia $37 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32 Russia $36 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | X |
| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $34.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $50 Russia $55 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $33 Ukraine |
| X |
| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady | X |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $48.00 | Down $5.00 | X |
| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $80.00 | Down $5.00 | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt – coaster | $36.00 |
| X |
| Ukraine to Turkey(Izmir) -- coaster | $27.00 |
| x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1504 | Up 69 | X |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1962 | Up 112 | X |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1692 | Down 10 | X |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 1201 | Up 105 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 660 | Up 32 | X |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1599 | Up 193 | x |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2023/July 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 280>>273 Aug | X |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 370>>360 Aug | X |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 250/260 | X |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 270/275 | X |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 275/280 | X |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 276/279 | X |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 325/335 | X |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 240/245 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 267/270 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 260/265 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 250/255 | X |
| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 268/273 | X |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 290>>265 Aug | X |
| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 315>>290 Aug | X |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 260>>225 Aug | X |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 270>>225 Aug | X |
| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 290/293 | X |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 265/270 | X |
| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 | X |
| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245/250 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 300/310 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 340>>327 Aug | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 518/520 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 548/550 | X |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 500>>490 Aug | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 535/545 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 480<<490 Aug | X |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 580>>550 Aug | X |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 550/560 | X |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 480<<500 Aug | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 480/485 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 790/795 | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 295/300 | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 325>>310 Aug | x |
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USA DDGS prices have dropped a little lower this week as ethanol out put is high and DDGS supplies are growing. DDGS export prices are down by about USD 5 m/t.
While published prices don't always show it, the prices for both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed look to be a little lower at the export ports. May shipping positions are pretty well sold out but there is availability in June and lower prices will bring in the export buyer.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Still no new fishing quota for Peru and the trade is now talking about fishing in May, perhaps even mid-May or worst late-May. Seems that the Eureka analysis is not supportive at all of a quick return to fishing – fish size too small, juvenile percentage too high, etc, etc.
So, we continued to sit and wait to get back to fishing.
Prices in Peru have taken a sudden jump on the delay in new fishing season and could very well move even higher. Pre-sales for the next season are now up to about 90,000 m/t according to trade reports.
The IFFO meeting/conference is in Madrid on May 01/03 --- most everyone important in the fishmeal industry is expected to be represented.
MSI-Ceres had a long list of interesting information on China's investments in Peru. It looks like China is just as interested in Peru as it is in many countries in Africa.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,055 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,755 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,815 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,845 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,025 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1770/1780 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1820/1830 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1870/1880 m/t | No prices |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1920/1930 m/t | No prices |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1970/1980 m/t | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 5800/5900 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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