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Phone : +33.6.8068.4564
Email : wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW : hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT April 15, 2023
This week has been more of an up week for grain and oilseed prices --- old crop corn prices moved higher by close to USD 9 m/t while new crop remained steady. Old crop soybeans were up by about USD 3 while, like corn, new crop was steady. Hard red winter wheat was higher buy close to USD 8 in all months while Us spring wheat was almost unchanged.
Wheat prices had been dropping early in the week but concerns over the Russia/Black Sea situation pushed prices higher on Friday which made the week a plus week for prices. Corn too had a strong Friday as China bought more corn and markets just followed the price trend higher.
Soybean prices were weaker for much of the week as the Brazil crop and lower prices make all other origins for soybeans look much too expensive. The market seems to have soybeans in a bearish trend so we could see more price weakness coming. Soymeal is harder to judge but looks like it will stay steady to higher but the massive Brazil soybean crop may still push soymeal prices lower.
As an interesting note, Brazil looks to be the largest corn exporter this year pushing the US into second place. Brazil's corn export could exceed 50 million m/t.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
| US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $29.00 | Up $1.00 |
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| $29.00 |
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| US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $34.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $36.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $37.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf other Med: Handi | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to India: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady |
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| US Gulf China: Panamax | $56.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
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| US PNW China: Panamax | $30.00 | Steady |
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| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $53.00 | Steady |
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| US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $30.00 | Down #1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Bangladesh | $82.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to China: Panamax | $80.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $24.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to India: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Jordan | $37.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $29.00 | Down $1.00 |
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| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to South Africa: Handi | $46.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $33.00 | Steady |
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| France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $63.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $49.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to China: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $50.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $54.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $40.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Libya: Handi | $51.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $64.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to India: Panamax | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Bangladesh: Panamax | $66.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $43.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $40.00 | Steady |
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| Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $49.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to China: Panamax | $46.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $2.00 |
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| Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $40.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Bangladesh: Panamax | N/A | Steady |
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| Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $40.00 | Steady |
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| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady |
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| Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $51.00 | Up $2.00 |
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| Australia to Europe: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea freight – Romania and Russia
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| Black Sea to China: Panamax | Russia $61 Ukraine $65 |
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| Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | Russia $59 Ukraine $64 |
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| Black Sea to Bangladesh : Panamax | Russia $50 Ukraine $56 |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $21 Russia $25 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia $34 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $55 Russia $60 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia $32 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $33 Russia $37 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $32 Russia $36 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $32.00 | Steady |
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| Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $62 Russia $67 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $20 Russia $33 Ukraine |
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| Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $53.00 | Steady |
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| Russia to Egypt – coaster 3 to 5,000 m/t | $85.00 | Steady |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1435 | Down 125 |
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| Baltic Capesize Index | 1850 | Down 191 |
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| Baltic Panamax Index | 1702 | Down 149 |
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| Baltic Supramax Index | 1096 | Down 65 |
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| Baltic Handisize Index | 628 | Down 15 |
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| Global Container Index - Freightos | 1406 | Down 10 |
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All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May 2023/July 2023
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 288>>280 Aug |
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| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 387>>376 Aug |
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| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245/250 |
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| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 270/275 |
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| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 275/280 |
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| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 278/281 |
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| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 330/335 |
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| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 245/250 |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 263/265 |
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| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 275/280 |
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| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 245/250 |
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| Barley, feed, Australia | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 295>>270 Aug |
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| Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 320>>300 Aug |
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| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 280>>245 Aug |
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| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 290>>245 Aug |
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| Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 290/293 |
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| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Russia | USD 265/270 |
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| Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 235/240 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 300/310 |
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| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 340>>329 July |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 545>>540 Aug |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 575>>570 Aug |
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| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 520>>510 Aug |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 540/550 |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 500<<510 Aug |
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| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 590>>565 Aug |
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| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 560<<590 Aug |
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| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 500<<525 Aug |
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| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 480/485 Ukraine |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 770/775 |
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| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 270/280 |
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| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 325>>310 Aug |
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DDGS prices in the US for nearby shipments are said to be stronger due to ethanol facility annual maintenance programs. Exports prices for DDGS have not changed but prices for August are looking very attractive and should see export buying interest developing.
While corn gluten feed prices were steady the corn gluten meal prices have slipped a little lower once again which, like DDGS, should see some new export interest as prices slip a little lower.
The US Grains Council has issued a new handbook on DDGS – see link below.
https://grains.org/buying-selling/ddgs/user-handbook/
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
We are still all waiting for the new Peru fishing quota to be set and April is slipping away. Another short 5 day research cruise will start on the 17th to the 21st. Trade reports suggest that the major IMARPE cruise had varying results which needs further checking.
Everyone is still hoping that the fishing season will begin before the end of April.
These days all the trade reports are full of El Nino items but none of the items look much like bad news for the next fishing season. Perhaps it is bad news for late 2023.
Not much market activity and trade reports say that pre-sales of fishmeal are only at 75,000 m/t, which seems to be lower than what the trade had reported a couple of weeks ago.
So, here we are all just waiting for the new quota number and start date --- everyone is itching to get going.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,050 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,750 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,810 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,840 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,020 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein standard steam | 1700/1710 m/t |
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| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1750/1760 m/t |
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| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1810 m/t | 1800/1810 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1850/1860 m/t | 1830/1840 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 1900/1910 m/t | 1870/1880 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 4300/4400 |
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| Fish oil, crude drums | No prices |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 5800/5900 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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