Sunday, December 17, 2023

FW: Weekly Report --- December 16, 2023

 

 

 

 

 

 

     Hammersmith Reports

 

3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

Phone: +33.6.8068.4564   

Email:   wbacon@hammersmith.biz   

WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    

 

 

WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 16, 2023

 

Corn had a quiet week for prices this week and ended up unchanged on the week. Soybeans were up a little, perhaps USD 2 to 4 m/t. Hard Red Winter wheat (HRW) dropped by about USD 7 m/t while other types of US wheat were pretty much unchanged.

 

Wheat prices had an up day on Friday as it appeared to some that the futures market may be swinging from bearish to bullish --- this based on the “Commitment of Traders” data from the CFTC. It looks like some folks are covering their wheat shorts which could be pointing to higher prices.

 

About the only thing affecting corn prices this week was the talk about sustainable aviation fuel and what that could mean for the corn growers --- most experts seem to feel that this will be long-term bullish for corn though perhaps bearish for ethanol.

 

Soybean prices were up by USD 4 m/t for spot business but only by a couple of dollars a little further out. Soybean monthly crush numbers were higher than expected while new US soybean export sales were good. It looks like soybean prices will remain firm.

 

Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.

 

US Gulf to Europe: Panamax

$31.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Spain: Panamax m/t

$31.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t

$38.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax

$38.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t

$39.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Morocco: Handi

$39.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$40.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t

$45.00

Steady

 

US Gulf other Med: Handi

$41.00

Down $2.00

 

US Gulf South Africa: Handi

$41.00

Steady

 

US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

US Gulf Japan: Panamax

$61.00

Down $3.00

 

US Gulf China: Panamax

$60.00

Down $3.00

 

US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t

$65.00

Steady

 

US PNW Philippines: Panamax

$39.00

Steady

 

US PNW Japan: Panamax

$32.00

Down $1.00

 

US PNW China: Panamax

$31.00

Down $1.00

 

US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize

$45.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t

$60.00

Steady

 

US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t

$69.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

France/Germany to Algeria: Handi

$32.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to China: Panamax

$82.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax

$32.00

Up $2.00

 

France/Germany to Iran: Panamax

$45.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Jordan

$40.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Morocco: Handi

$31.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$65.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Turkey: Handi

$35.00

Steady

 

France/Germany to Yemen: Handi

$66.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Argentina to Algeria: Handi

$61.00

Down $1.00

 

Argentina to China: Panamax

$51.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Japan: Panamax

$52.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Egypt: Panamax

$53.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Europe: Panamax

$37.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Morocco: Handi

$60.00

Down $1.00

 

Argentina to Libya: Handi

$62.00

Down $1.00

 

Argentina to Jordan: Panamax

$55.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax

$63.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax

$59.00

Steady

 

Argentina to South Africa: Panamax

$35.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Kenya: Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

Argentina to Spain: Panamax

$37.00

Down $2.00

 

Argentina to Tunisia: Handi

$61.00

Down $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi

$50.00

Down $1.00

 

Brazil to China: Panamax

$46.00

Down $2.00

 

Brazil to Japan: Panamax

$47.00

Down $2.00

 

Brazil to South Korea: Panamax

$48.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Europe: Panamax

$39.00

Down $2.00

 

Brazil to Morocco: Handi

$49.00

Down $1.00

 

Brazil to Iran: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t

$64.00

Down $2.00

 

Brazil to Spain: Panamax

$39.00

Down $2.00

 

Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax

$59.00

Down $1.00

 

 

 

 

 

Australia to Saudi: Panamax

$52.00

Steady

 

Australia to Europe: Panamax

$61.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea freight

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to China: Panamax

$60 Russia

Ukraine $57

 

Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax

$60 Russia

Ukraine $77

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000

$26 Russia

Ukraine $29

 

Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000

$22 Russia

Ukraine $35

 

Black Sea to Iran: Panamax

$50 Russia

Ukraine $61

 

Black Sea to Europe: Panamax

$28 Russia

Ukraine $33

 

Black Sea to Morocco – Handi

$29 Russia

Ukraine $48

 

Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi

$28 Russia

Ukraine $47

 

Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax

$37 Russia

Ukraine $53

 

Black Sea to Libya – Handi

$29 Russia

Ukraine $48

 

Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax

$45 Russia

Ukraine $71

 

Black Sea to Turkey – Handi

$16 Russia

Ukraine $40

 

 

 

 

 

Black Sea to South Africa – Handi

$57.00

Steady

 

 

 

 

 

Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t

$28.00

Up $2.00

 

Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$62.00

Steady

 

Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t

$33.00

Steady

 

Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t

$83.00

Up $4.00

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Baltic Dry Index

2348

Down 135

 

Baltic Capesize Index

4113

Down 146

 

Baltic Panamax Index

1900

Down 204

 

Baltic Supramax Index

1426

Down 95

 

Baltic Handisize Index

908

Up 36

 

 

 

 

 

Global Container Index - Freightos

1281

Up 12

 

   

 

 

 

 

 

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2024/March 2024

 

   Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf

USD 268<<272 Apr   

 

   Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf

USD 289<<293 Apr      

 

   Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 205<<210 Apr

 

   Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t

USD 244<<250 Apr 

 

   Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro

USD 250<<255 Apr   

 

   Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen

USD 244<<253 Apr      

 

   Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver

 USD 240<<260 Apr     

 

   Wheat, feed, Black Sea

USD 220/225      

 

 

 

 

   Barley, France, Rouen port

USD 220/225

 

   Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver

USD 220/225

 

   Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+

USD 185/190

 

   Barley, feed, Australia

USD 255/260

 

 

 

 

   Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA

USD 210<<215 Apr 

 

   Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest

 USD 230<<240 Apr  

 

   Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver

USD 215>>210 Apr  

 

   Corn, FOB Brazil port

USD 230>>220 Apr 

 

   Corn, FOB France – Atlantic

USD 220/224

 

   Corn, FOB Romania

USD 235<<250 Apr

 

   Corn, FOB Russia

USD 210<<225 Apr

 

   Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t

USD 182<<188 Apr

 

   Sorghum, FOB Argentina port

USD 285/290

 

   Sorghum, FOB Texas

USD 269/272

 

 

 

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA

USD 490>>470 Apr  

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam

USD 520>>500 Apr  

 

   Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina

USD 465>>425 Apr     

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot

USD 520/525

 

   Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil

 USD 460>>420 Apr 

 

 

 

 

   Soybeans, FOB NOLA

USD 510<<520 Apr

 

   Soybeans, Argentina, FOB

USD 510>>470 Apr

 

   Soybeans, Brazil, FOB

USD 530>>480 Apr

 

   Soybeans, Black Sea

No prices

 

 

 

 

   Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA

USD 675/680

 

   Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA

USD 225/230

 

   DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA

USD 280>>265 Apr

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not too much excitement in the corn coproduct markets this week although some producers have been seen to be offering corn gluten meal at lower price levels. The market says that there is lots of CGM available these days which is moving prices a little lower.

 

DDGS prices didn’t do much this week --- up a dollar or two or down a dollar or two. Demand for DDGS in domestic and export markets is steady bit nothing too interesting happening to move prices one way or another.

 

Some trade folks think that prices and business will be quiet until we get into January and everyone can get back to full time work.

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

A very small fishing week this week due to mini fishing bans most everywhere. Total catch to date is now up to 1.07 million m/t – about 240,000 m/t of fishmeal and 5,100 m/t of fishoil.

 

Prices in both Peru and Chile are slipping a little bit lower but the spread between the prime grades and the lower grades is getting wider as prime is in very short supply.

 

While there is some buying interest in the market it seems to be very small with just the odd lot being sold. China is the main buyer but doesn’t look to have much interest in stocking up. China’s supplies are still very good but there is not much domestic buying interest as we are between aqua seasons.

 

No one is talking much about prices but as stock continues to build in Peru and buyers stay out of the market there should certainly be some pressure on producers to get more aggressive with their selling prices.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type

Protein %

Price per

m/t USD

Herring fishmeal

72% protein

1,995

Danish fishmeal

64% protein

1,825

Peru fishmeal

64% protein

2,055

Chile fishmeal

67% protein

2,055

Iceland fishmeal

70% protein

1,950

 

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

    Specification

Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port

Price per m/t

Chile port

 

 

 

   65% protein standard steam

1600/1620

 

   67% protein 150 TVN

1750/1770

 

   67% protein 120 TVN

1800/1820

1800/1820

   67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN

1900/1920

1900/1920

   68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN

2000/2020

2050/2070

 

 

 

   Fish oil, crude bulk

No prices

5,100/5,200

   Fish oil, crude drums

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, flexi tank

No prices

No prices

   Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA

10,000+

No prices

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

 

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be dependable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.

 

Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon

 

 

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