Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 16, 2023
Wheat prices had an up day on Friday as it appeared to some that the futures market may be swinging from bearish to bullish --- this based on the “Commitment of Traders” data from the CFTC. It looks like some folks are covering their wheat shorts which could be pointing to higher prices.
About the only thing affecting corn prices this week was the talk about sustainable aviation fuel and what that could mean for the corn growers --- most experts seem to feel that this will be long-term bullish for corn though perhaps bearish for ethanol.
Soybean prices were up by USD 4 m/t for spot business but only by a couple of dollars a little further out. Soybean monthly crush numbers were higher than expected while new US soybean export sales were good. It looks like soybean prices will remain firm.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
$31.00 | Steady | ||
$31.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $38.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $38.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $39.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $39.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $40.00 | Down $2.00 | |
$45.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $41.00 | Down $2.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $61.00 | Down $3.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $60.00 | Down $3.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $32.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $31.00 | Down $1.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $32.00 | Up $2.00 | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $61.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $51.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $60.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $61.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $46.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Down $2.00 | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $26 Russia | Ukraine $29 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $35 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $50 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $28 Russia | Ukraine $33 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $45 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $28.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $83.00 | Up $4.00 | |
Baltic Dry Index | 2348 | Down 135 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 4113 | Down 146 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1900 | Down 204 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1426 | Down 95 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 908 | Up 36 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1281 | Up 12 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2024/March 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 268<<272 Apr | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 289<<293 Apr | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205<<210 Apr | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 244<<250 Apr | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 250<<255 Apr | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 244<<253 Apr | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 240<<260 Apr | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 185/190 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 255/260 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210<<215 Apr | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 230<<240 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215>>210 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 230>>220 Apr | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 220/224 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 235<<250 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210<<225 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 182<<188 Apr | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285/290 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 269/272 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 490>>470 Apr | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 520>>500 Apr | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 465>>425 Apr | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 520/525 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 460>>420 Apr | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 510<<520 Apr | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 510>>470 Apr | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 530>>480 Apr | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 675/680 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 225/230 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 280>>265 Apr | |
Not too much excitement in the corn coproduct markets this week although some producers have been seen to be offering corn gluten meal at lower price levels. The market says that there is lots of CGM available these days which is moving prices a little lower.
DDGS prices didn’t do much this week --- up a dollar or two or down a dollar or two. Demand for DDGS in domestic and export markets is steady bit nothing too interesting happening to move prices one way or another.
Some trade folks think that prices and business will be quiet until we get into January and everyone can get back to full time work.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
A very small fishing week this week due to mini fishing bans most everywhere. Total catch to date is now up to 1.07 million m/t – about 240,000 m/t of fishmeal and 5,100 m/t of fishoil.
Prices in both Peru and Chile are slipping a little bit lower but the spread between the prime grades and the lower grades is getting wider as prime is in very short supply.
While there is some buying interest in the market it seems to be very small with just the odd lot being sold. China is the main buyer but doesn’t look to have much interest in stocking up. China’s supplies are still very good but there is not much domestic buying interest as we are between aqua seasons.
No one is talking much about prices but as stock continues to build in Peru and buyers stay out of the market there should certainly be some pressure on producers to get more aggressive with their selling prices.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,995 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,825 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,055 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,055 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,950 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1600/1620 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1750/1770 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1800/1820 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1900/1920 | 1900/1920 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2050/2070 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 10,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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