Hammersmith Reports
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WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 02, 2023
US wheat prices were up this week as soymeal tumbled lower but both corn and soybeans showed slight change on the week.
Both soybeans and soymeal had down days on Friday with soybeans down by about USD 6 m/t on the day and soymeal down by USD 15 m/t on the day. Soybeans did finish the week almost unchanged in price while soymeal dropped by as much as USD 30 m/t for spot positions. Trade experts say that any weakness in soybeans/soymeal is due to the rainfall in Brazil and the hopes for improved bean yields.
Corn processing for ethanol was at a record high according to the latest monthly USDA Crushing report which probably kept corn prices from moving lower. Corn usage for ethanol production is up by 2.9% on the year. Corn futures prices this week broke the bearish trend according to experts, but other experts feel that prices will be bearish once again in the near future.
The US Grains Council’s Corn Crop Quality Report was issued this week and a copy is available at the following: https://grains.org/corn_report/corn-harvest-quality-report-2023-2024
Wheat prices had hit the lows on Monday then charged higher for the rest of the week with US winter wheat prices moving as much as USD 15 m/t higher. Trade experts feel that wheat prices could continue higher next week as there is more short covering expected in the futures market. Trade reports say the price rally could be due to possible wheat export restrictions by Russia or due to Chinese wheat buying or perhaps just a switch from a bear market to a bull market.
The US Wheat Associates Crop Quality report was issued in October and is available for download at the following: https://www.uswheat.org/crop-quality
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $32.00 | Up $3.00 | |
$32.00 | Up $3.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $40.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $40.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $41.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $41.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $42.00 | Up $4.00 | |
$45.00 | Up $3.00 | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $43.00 | Up $4.00 | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $63.00 | Up $6.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $62.00 | Up $6.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $33.00 | Up $3.00 | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $32.00 | Up $3.00 | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Up $2.00 | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $26.00 | Up $2.00 | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Up $3.00 | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Up $2.00 | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Up $3.00 | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Up $2.00 | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $53.00 | Up $4.00 | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $54.00 | Up $4.00 | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $55.00 | Up $2.00 | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $60.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $51.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $45.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $46.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $50.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $66.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $57 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $22 Russia | Ukraine $41 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $20 Russia | Ukraine $42 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $48 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $29 Russia | Ukraine $38 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $43 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $26.00 | Down $1.00 | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $79.00 | Steady | |
Baltic Dry Index | 3192 | Up 1090 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 6237 | Up 2852 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 2341 | Up 277 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1489 | Up 210 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 773 | Up 103 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1156 | Up 23 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2024/March 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 258<<262 Apr | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 291<<293 Apr | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 200<<205 Apr | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 239<<243 Apr | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 254<<260 Apr | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 244<<255 Apr | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 230<<260 Apr | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 230/235 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/230 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 180/185 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 262/265 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210<<220 Apr | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 230<<240 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220<<210 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 230>>210 Apr | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 222/225 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 219/222 | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 205/210 | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180/185 | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 265/270 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 530>>485 Apr | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 560>>515 Apr | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 500>>430 Apr | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 565/570 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 485>>435 Apr | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 510<<520 Apr | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 520>>480 Apr | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 525>>480 Apr | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 685/690 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 235/240 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285>>275 Apr | |
USA DDGS prices drifted a little lower this week but only by a couple of dollars. Experts say that the DDGS supply in the US is getting a little tight due to lower ethanol production. Prices into 2024 for DDGS are about USD 10 m/t lower than spot prices.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed prices moved lower on the week. The drop in CGM prices is due to the weakness seen in soymeal this week. Soymeal prices were down as much as USD 30 m/t which certainly moved CGM lower.
Export buyers of CGM are hoping that CGM prices continue to dip as recent very high prices had kept them out of the market.
According to the USDA Crushing report, DDGS production is up by 2.9% on the year while corn gluten meal production is up by 0.6% and corn gluten feed down by 1.0%.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
The catch in Peru was lower this week due mainly to mini bans. However, the total catch did reach 973,000 MT leaving 709,000 m/t on the quota.
Still no new fishing quota set for the South of Peru --- no one expects one now as the Southern fishing season normally ends on December 31.
There are still many comments in trade reports about the possible premature end to fishing in the North/Central region due to the continued high juvenile fish level. Recent reports have juvenile levels as high as 60%.
Trade reports say that buying interest has picked and that producers are getting more interested in selling --- buyers are said to be bidding quite a bit under current market prices --- so, price weakness is expected as some trades get done.
Peru trade reports are still full of El Nino comments and concerns and the water temperature does seem to be moving higher. Reports feel that there will be a moderate to strong El Nino event in the late summer to fall of 2024 --- that would be January to March/April 2024 in Peru.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,090 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,870 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,130 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,130 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 2,000 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1800/1820 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1950/1970 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2000/2020 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2050/2070 | 2050/2070 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2150/2170 | 2100/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 10,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
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