Hammersmith Reports
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone: +33.6.8068.4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 09, 2023
This week’s USDA WASDE report was not too exciting with most numbers not too far away from what th trade and the experts had forecasted. Ending stocks for all grains/oilseeds in all producing countries showed very little change. World production for corn was up slightly while world soybean production dropped just a tad.
Corn prices were almost unchanged during the week. The WASDE report did increase forecasted corn export shipments a little but not as much as the trade had expected. USA corn is very competitive these days in most export markets.
US soybean prices moved down by about USD 8 m/t which was more about the expected size of the Brazil crop than due to any WASDE changes. Even soymeal was down by close to USD 8 m/t on the week.
USA wheat prices dropped a little on Friday but still finished the week higher with US winter wheat up by about USD 10 m/t for soft and USD 5 m/t for hard. Spring wheat prices for 2024 didn’t change. US wheat has had a very strong move higher in recent weeks and the trend higher does look to be continuing.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $31.00 | Down $1.00 | |
$31.00 | Down $1.00 | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $40.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $40.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $42.00 | Steady | |
$45.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $43.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $64.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $63.00 | Up $1.00 | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $33.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $32.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $30.00 | Up $4.00 | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $54.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $63.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $51.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $48.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $49.00 | Up $3.00 | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $66.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $41.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $57 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $25 Russia | Ukraine $33 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $21 Russia | Ukraine $35 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $48 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $28 Russia | Ukraine $35 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $44 Russia | Ukraine $71 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | ||
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $26.00 | Steady | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $62.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $33.00 | Steady | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $79.00 | Steady | |
Baltic Dry Index | 2483 | Down 709 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 4259 | Down 1978 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 2104 | Down 237 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1521 | Up 32 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 872 | Up 99 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1269 | Up 113 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2024/March 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 269<<273 Apr | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 298<<302 Apr | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 200<<210 Apr | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 240<<248 Apr | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 250<<255 Apr | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 245<<255 Apr | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 235<<260 Apr | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 230/235 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/230 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/195 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 262/265 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 213<<220 Apr | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 235<<240 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 220>>213 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 230>>220 Apr | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 228/231 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 225<<240 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210<<225 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 180<<190 Apr | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 280/285 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 272/275 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 490>>470 Apr | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 520>>500 Apr | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 475>>425 Apr | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 520/525 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 470>>425 Apr | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 500<<515 Apr | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 515>>465 Apr | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 515>>475 Apr | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 685/690 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 235/240 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 285>>265 Apr | |
US DDGS prices were a little higher – up no more than USD 3 m/t for early positions and only up USD 1 m/t for a little later. According to the latest USDA report DDGS production is up by 5.6%, to 1.63 mm/t, in October due to higher ethanol production. Production for both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal was almost steady with CGF seeing production of 240,000 m/t and CGM at 110,000 m/t.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
Fishing bans reduced the catch again this week, but the total still moved up to 1.047 million m/t which leaves about 635,000 m/t on the quota.
Trade reports were saying this week that there is quite a bit of pressure to stop fishing and end the season due to the continuing very high level of juvenile fish. The total juvenile level to date is seen as 54% of the catch, which is well above the normally accepted limit.
There was new business to China reported this week for standard grade fishmeal and it is said to have been done at prices about USD 200 m/t lower than the price table below. However, both Super Prime and Prime prices remain steady due to very limited supply availability in Peru. According to trade reports the spread between standard and Super Prime is now about USD 500 m/t.
Unsold fishmeal supplies in Peru are said to be at about 100,000 m/t.
According to Peru export numbers to the end of October, total fishmeal exports were at 1,015,000 m/t with 876,000 m/t going to Asia – 86.19% of exports.
China’s fishmeal imports for 2024 are forecasted to be up a little at 1.66 million m/t – up from 1.58 mm/t. Total fishmeal consumption is seen as up 5% to 2.09 mm/t.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,980 |
Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,830 |
Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 2,110 |
Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 2,110 |
Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,940 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1800/1820 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1950/1970 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 2000/2020 | 2000/2020 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 2050/2070 | 2050/2070 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2150/2170 | 2100/2120 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 10,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.