Hammersmith Reports
3 Avenue Marie Gasquet, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Phone: +33.6.8068.4564
Email: wbacon@hammersmith.biz
WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com
Here we are just a couple of days before the Christmas holiday and just over a week until 2024. Goodness, 2023 certainly went past quickly. 2023 was probably the most difficult year for the world that we have seen in a long time and 2024 doesn’t look like it will be any easier.
Sitting here in our wee town in France we are not directly affected by all the world problems. We get all the bad world news on BBC or France24 but it all seems to be far away from little St Remy. However, we do see that all our local prices have increased, just like everywhere. Much is still OK, Amazon.com still gives us next day delivery and gasoline prices are dropping but onions cost a fortune.
It would be great to be looking towards a better year in 2024 and I hope that it is better, but it certainly doesn’t look like it will be.
All the best for Christmas and New Year and for a better 2024 than I expect.
Wayne Bacon
WEEKLY USA GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT December 23, 2023
Next week is only a 4 day week for grain markets due to the Christmas holiday on Monday and trading is expected to be much lower as so many operations are closed or working reduced staff until January. Of course, as we have seen in past years, crazy things can happen to prices when volume is low and traders few.
There was not much reason for the corn market to get excited this week, so it just quietly slipped a little lower. Trade reports do feel that corn prices will move lower the closer that we get to South American corn supply. Weather in South America looks great for crops and corn crop conditions are said to be very good on average.
The weakness in soybean prices was perhaps due to the higher Brazil soy production estimate from one organization. Production was increased by 0.38% while exports were increased by 1.0%. Reports say that speculators are reducing their short futures positions on soybeans --- perhaps just taking profits or anticipating a change in market direction.
There was almost no news that would affect US wheat this week although, like soybeans, speculators are reported to be reducing their short futures positions. Perhaps a wee price rally is expected.
Estimated Bulk Grain Freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains.
US Gulf to Europe: Panamax | $31.00 | Steady | |
$31.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf Israel: Panamax m/t | $38.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax | $38.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Turkey: Panamax m/t | $39.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Morocco: Handi | $39.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $40.00 | Steady | |
$45.00 | Steady | ||
US Gulf other Med: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf South Africa: Handi | $41.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf to Philippines: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
US Gulf China: Panamax | $60.00 | Steady | |
US PNW South Africa – 40,000 m/t | $65.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Philippines: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
US PNW Japan: Panamax | $32.00 | Steady | |
US PNW China: Panamax | $31.00 | Steady | |
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $45.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Europe – 30,000 m/t | $60.00 | Steady | |
US Lakes – Morocco – 30,000 m/t | $69.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Algeria: Handi | $32.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to China: Panamax | $82.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Egypt: Panamax | $33.00 | Up $1.00 | |
France/Germany to Iran: Panamax | $45.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Jordan | $40.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Morocco: Handi | $31.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $65.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Turkey: Handi | $35.00 | Steady | |
France/Germany to Yemen: Handi | $66.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Algeria: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to China: Panamax | $51.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Japan: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Egypt: Panamax | $53.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Europe: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Morocco: Handi | $61.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Libya: Handi | $63.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Argentina to Jordan: Panamax | $55.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Saudi Arabia: Panamax | $63.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Indonesia: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to South Africa: Panamax | $35.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Kenya: Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Spain: Panamax | $37.00 | Steady | |
Argentina to Tunisia: Handi | $62.00 | Up $1.00 | |
Brazil to Algeria/Tunisia: Handi | $50.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to China: Panamax | $46.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Japan: Panamax | $47.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to South Korea: Panamax | $48.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Europe: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Morocco: Handi | $49.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Iran: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Saudi Arabia 30/40,000 m/t | $64.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Spain: Panamax | $39.00 | Steady | |
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: Panamax | $59.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Saudi: Panamax | $52.00 | Steady | |
Australia to Europe: Panamax | $61.00 | Steady | |
Black Sea freight | |||
Black Sea to China: Panamax | $62 Russia | Ukraine $57 | |
Black Sea to Indonesia: Panamax | $60 Russia | Ukraine $77 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 | $23 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to Egypt: 30,000 | $23 Russia | Ukraine $29 | |
Black Sea to Iran: Panamax | $50 Russia | Ukraine $61 | |
Black Sea to Europe: Panamax | $28 Russia | Ukraine $30 | |
Black Sea to Morocco – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria – Handi | $28 Russia | Ukraine $47 | |
Black Sea to Jordan: Panamax | $37 Russia | Ukraine $53 | |
Black Sea to Libya – Handi | $29 Russia | Ukraine $48 | |
Black Sea to Saudi: Panamax | $45 Russia | Ukraine $70 | |
Black Sea to Turkey – Handi | $16 Russia | Ukraine $40 | |
Black Sea to South Africa – Handi | $57.00 | Steady | |
Russia to Turkey (Izmir)– coaster 5,000 m/t | $63.00 | Corrected | |
Russia to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $83.00 | Corrected | |
Ukraine to Turkey – coaster 5,000 m/t | $65.00 | Corrected | |
Ukraine to Egypt – coaster 5,000 m/t | $96.00 | Corrected | |
Baltic Dry Index | 2094 | Down 254 | |
Baltic Capesize Index | 3398 | Down 715 | |
Baltic Panamax Index | 1909 | Up 9 | |
Baltic Supramax Index | 1369 | Down 57 | |
Baltic Handisize Index | 879 | Down 29 | |
Global Container Index - Freightos | 1346 | Up 65 | |
|
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise.
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
ALL PRICES ARE FOR January 2024/March 2024
Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, US Gulf | USD 264<<267 Apr | |
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 11 protein, US Gulf | USD 284<<287 Apr | |
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 205<<210 Apr | |
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 245<<250 Apr | |
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 275<<280 Apr | |
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 247<<254 Apr | |
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, Upriver | USD 235<<260 Apr | |
Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 200/210 | |
Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 220/225 | |
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 190/195 | |
Barley, feed, Australia | USD 260/265 | |
Corn, 2YC FOB NOLA USA | USD 210<<215 Apr | |
Corn, 3YC FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 230<<235 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 215>>210 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 230>>215 Apr | |
Corn, FOB France – Atlantic | USD 219/222 | |
Corn, FOB Romania | USD 230<<240 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Russia | USD 210<<225 Apr | |
Corn, FOB Ukraine, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185<<195 Apr | |
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 285/290 | |
Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 268/271 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 465>>455 Apr | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 495>>485 Apr | |
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 470>>415 Apr | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam – spot | USD 510/515 | |
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB Brazil | USD 450>>415 Apr | |
Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 505<<510 Apr | |
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 500>>460 Apr | |
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 525>>470 Apr | |
Soybeans, Black Sea | No prices | |
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 640/650 | |
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 225/230 | |
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 275>>265 Apr | |
Corn gluten meal prices were down this week due to very good supply availability and a drop off in demand from the pet food industry. Lower CGM prices should attract new buying interest from overseas users. Corn gluten feed prices were steady during the week.
DDGS domestic and export prices were lower this week by as much as USD 5 m/t for January and February and as much as USD 8 m/t lower for March and April. Supplies to export ports were very good which is putting some pressure on prices.
Export buyers of feed ingredients in containers, especially to the Mediterranean and Middle East area, are finding it more difficult to arrange freight as the realignment of shipping schedules by container lines due to Red Sea problems is making Med freight harder to fix. This is affecting shipments from Asia west bound and the USA eastbound.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN “INDICATION” FISHMEAL PRICES:
There is still no quota for fishing in the South of Peru but there is now a 10 day fishing period allowed from December 21 to 31. Any catch will be applied against the new 2024 South quota which will be announced in January.
The weekly catch in the Central/North region is still very low due to mini-bans and poor landings in Paita and Chimbote -- catch was only as 21,000 m/t for the week --- this brings the total catch to 1.103 million m/t with 578,400 m/t still available on the quota.
Prices in Peru for better grades are remaining strong as supply is limited while the prices for lower grades are slipping a bit. China would like to buy more but they need Prime grades as stocks in China are mainly standard fishmeal. There is just not much Prime or Super Prime fishmeal available.
MSI Ceres mentioned this week that container rates for fishmeal are expected to move higher shortly due to the problems in transiting both the Panama Canal and the Red Sea.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
Descriptions and protein levels have been adjusted this week thanks to input from FF Skagen.
Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 2,010 |
Danish standard fishmeal | 71% protein | 1,855 |
Peru fishmeal | 65% protein | 2,050 |
Chile fishmeal | 66% protein | 2,050 |
Iceland fishmeal | 71% protein | 2,030 |
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
Specification | Price per m/t FOB Vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
65% protein standard steam | 1550/1570 | |
67% protein 150 TVN | 1650/1670 | |
67% protein 120 TVN | 1800/1820 | 1800/1820 |
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1920/1940 | 1900/1920 |
68% protein 500 hist, 100 TVN | 2020/2040 | 2050/2070 |
Fish oil, crude bulk | No prices | 5,100/5,200 |
Fish oil, crude drums | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, flexi tank | No prices | No prices |
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 12,000+ | No prices |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
Copyright © 2023 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.