Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 01, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Just for your info – I will be in Krakow, Poland next week for the FEFAC Congress and the week after in London, England for the International Grains Council Conference --- if any readers are going please give me a nudge and say hello.
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
This was another week of higher prices for corn and soybeans but a worrying week for wheat with the GMO wheat discovery in Oregon… quite a surprise. It will be very interesting to see where this GMO wheat has been hiding for the nine years since the program was phased out.
So, a four-day week with higher new crop prices and higher old and new crop prices for soybeans.
According to trade sources the biggest decision that corn farmers now have to make is whether or not to plant the remaining 14 percent of corn that has not been planted. They have a few options and some serious financial considerations: should one plant late corn with the risk of reduced yield or swing over to soybeans where the profits could be less or does one just pack it all in and claim for the lost crop. These are the decisions that face the farmer and push the market price higher --- if 14 percent of the corn crop, or something less, is not planted then what will that do to all the complicated USDA crop projections.
Looking at the corn plantings, we are only a little behind the normal levels with about 86% planted versus 90% on average so there is still time to get the rest in the ground.
There are also comments from the "experts" that the late planting will affect the corn yields and that the USDA numbers could be too high.
Nothing like some good bullish news to push corn prices higher and with summer volatility just around the corner then things are going to get very interesting. But for this minute it looks like new crop corn should be higher based on current less than perfect growing weather and the possibility of lower plantings.
Soybeans had a strong week with good export sales, although lower than some trade expectations, and what some see as a reduced chance of soybeans being planted for corn.
On the planting side, we are still below 50% on the soybean plantings as wet weather has slowed things a little. There had been a great deal of speculation that quite a bit of late corn would actually switch to soybeans and this had pushed prices lower in the past little while but now it seems that a switch to soybeans may be less likely as corn farmers may just claim on their crop insurance under the "prevented planting" clause. It will be very interesting to see the soybean planting numbers this week to get some idea on where the plantings are going ---- some of the trade feels that this weeks numbers are not going to be all that much higher than last week.
It is tough to know exactly where soybean/soymeal prices are going but the planting report could set the direction.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 285/290 Jun/Sep |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 333/335 Jun/Sep |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro | USD 280>>260 July/Sep |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 306/308 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 275/280 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 270>>250 June>>Sep |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 267/269 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 250/260 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 265>>255 July>>Sep new crop |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 280/285 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 303>>273 June>>Sep |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 321>>304 June>>Sep |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 266>>260 Jun/Aug |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 229/231 July/Aug/Sep |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea | USD 280>>264 June>>Sep |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 297/303 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 276>>260 new crop Jul>>Oct |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 225/bid 215 June/July |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 558>>515 Jun>>Sep |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 585>>545 Jun>>Sep |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 572>>499 Spot>>J/J/A |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 525>>456 J/J/A/S |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 535>>475 Spot>>J/J/A |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 490>>440 J/J/A/S |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 620/640 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 218/225 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 620/630 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 293/295 m/t June/Aug |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 357/363 m/t June/Aug |
| | |
Most of the corn related products showed higher price this week as corn again moved higher and the rally in soymeal also helped to push protein prices higher. According to the DDGS trade in the USA, there was very good export demand this week from Asia with Vietnam buyers finally getting some of their bids booked – actually they had to raise their bids to get them booked which they did as corn started to rally. The US Grains Council reports that demand from Mexico is very good but that buyers are buying hand-to-mouth due to the volatility in the corn market….no one wants to pay too much for DDGS if the market may fall tomorrow. DDGS is still at a very good level against corn so should be attractive to many buyers…especially with a rally in corn.
Corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed moved higher this week too – CGM was the biggest mover as it had a double whammy – pushed higher by both corn and soymeal prices.
We are just coming into a period of high volatility for ag prices as the summer growing season is almost upon us, so, as I say every year, watch the weather to see where prices are going.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| Brazil Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia |
| Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD no prices |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 670/675 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 700/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 770/800 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1000/1040 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 1050/1080 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 465/480 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 600/610 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 525/535 m/t |
Following on with the rally in soymeal we saw domestic meat and bone meal prices in the USA move up by close to USD 20 m/t but this was certainly not seen in the market in Asia where prices were steady to a little lower. Domestic supplies in the USA for MBM are said to be a little tight at present, which is pushing up the price. There was no change in the USA price for feathermeal or poultry meal.
With the USA moving higher and soymeal quite strong it would be expected that animal protein prices in the international market will move higher in coming days. Feathermeal had been looking a little weaker until this week and there was a little downward pressure on poultry meal but one suspects that the current rally in protein will certainly stop any downward pressure, if only for a short time.
It is very interesting to see that Chinese interests have made a bid to Smithfield, the major USA pork producer and actually the world's largest pork producer. The Chinese company is China's largest pork producer so this could make a great deal of sense for the Chinese but may not be approved by the USA government. One of the USA trade reports jokingly said that they wanted the USA company for its supply of pork MBM.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
There has been some bad weather in Peru but the fishing just keep rolling along with the good weekdays averaging about 60,000 m/t of fish landed. This good fishing has pushed up the available supply of fishmeal and is putting some pressure on prices as producers are looking for buyers but buyers are sitting on their hands. It looks like the prices are probably about USD 50 m/t lower than the levels that I showed last week and last week was down from the week before.
There just has not been much in the way of buying interest as all the big boys are still out of the market and the stocks on hand in Peru are starting to build – looks like just over 50,000 m/t on hand at the end of the week but this will be growing by about 15,000 m/t per day if the fishing stays good.
The word in the trade is that producers are even showing prices this year, which is new for them as for quite a while now they have only done business on buyer's firm bids. This probably means that there is more downside in the fishmeal prices until some major buying interest appears. Of course the situation is still that North Atlantic fishmeal is more price competitive but the prices are getting closer. However, some in the trade say that the producers will just sit on their stocks for a while until the prices stabilize and the buyers are back --- but it could be a case of who blinks first: the buyer or the seller.
Contrary to my comment above about sellers showing prices, one of the major fishmeal agencies takes exception and says that all the major producers are still in the firm bid mode. Well, we will see what develops in coming days – much of which will depend on how the fishing progresses.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | 1620/1650 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1700/1730 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1730/1750 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1780/1800 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1810/1830 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1870/1890 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1930/1950 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2600/2650 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2750/2800 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2700/2750 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 3000/3300 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.