Weekly report -- June 09, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   June 09, 2013

                                                       (a Bahamas Corporation)

 

 

France:  Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564    Fax: 33.4.5774.7575

13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

It was perhaps a little calmer week in the corn and soybean side of things this week or perhaps that is just a misjudgement based on how the prices changed on the week. I was not able to watch things as closely this week, as I was in Poland at the FEFAC congress and away from much of my data.

 

Experts on corn futures seem to feel that there is a floor in old crop corn prices at about USD 6.50 bushel on the CBOT (CME), as when corn prices get down to that level they seem to bounce right back up.

 

There are still some delays in corn planting in some areas and the concern by traders that a switch will have to be made to soybeans for a good chunk of the 10 percent or so of the corn crop that has not been planted. With the weather over the next couple of weeks looking like quite a bit of rain the switch to soybeans may be the only alternative for some, other than an insurance claim. But then, the trade feels the Monday planting report will show corn at 95 to 96% planted so how much difference can the last 4% make to prices.  The trade also expects that the crop condition for corn on Monday will have at least 65% in good to excellent, which is quite good with the late planting.

 

Next week we have another USDA supply and demand report and that along with the weather should set the corn price trend for a few days.

 

Soybean prices were up on the week as the high level of planted corn made the possible switch from corn the soybeans smaller and smaller and of much less significance as more corn goes in the ground. Soybean prices had slipped lower when everyone thought that the corn problems would push up soybean production but, as that seems less likely, the market looks to be going back to a higher level, especially for the new crop where December soybean futures are still at a USD 40 m/t discount to the old crop levels.  

 

Looking at next weeks USDA report, the trade and the experts feel that the USDA will reduce production but that the 2013/14 year-end stocks level will increase from the current projection. While lower production could push prices higher, the higher ending stocks could make them a tad weaker. We just need to wait until the report is out and see what the market decides to do.  And after that is done then we can all get back to worrying about the weather.

  

 

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 282/288 Jun/Sep
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 328/330 Jun/Sep
Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000 m/t	USD 285>>255 July/Sep
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 306/308
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 275/280 Dec/Jan new crop
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 269>>248 June>>Sep
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 267/269
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 245/255 Dec/Jan new crop
Barley, feed, Black Sea	USD 263>>255 July>>Sep new crop
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 280/285

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 302>>273 June>>Sep
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 321>>304 June>>Sep
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD  270>>262  Jun/Aug
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD  233>>225  July/Aug/Sep
Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000 m/t	USD  275>>255 June>>Sep
Corn, FOB France	USD  300/302
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free	USD  276>>269 Jul>>Sep new crop
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free	USD  asked 226/bid 218 July/Aug

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD  563>>543 Jun>>Sep
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD  595>>573 Jun>>Sep
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD  577>>520 Spot>>J/J/A/S
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD  514>>475  J/J/A/S
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD  532>>487 Spot>>J/J/A/S
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD  490>>445  J/J/A/S
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD  620/630

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   217/222 m/t
Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   660/680 m/t
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   300/297 m/t June/Aug
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports	USD   375/372 m/t June/Aug

 

 

According to trade reports, the export demand for DDGS has slowed considerably in the past couple of weeks as buyers expect to see lower prices in coming weeks or so they hope.  The domestic demand for feed items in the USA tends to slow a little in the summer so this could mean that more supply and less demand could help and push DDGS prices a little lower.  The Asian buyers in the market these days are looking at positions out a few weeks and at prices a good bit below where we see the market today.  DDGS traders don't like to sell out too far due to price volatility and no reasonable hedging so these days buyers are not getting much seller cooperation on distant purchases.

 

Corn Gluten Meal prices seem to have taken a good jump this week probably as a result of being undervalued for the last few weeks. CGM prices had dropped quite a bit from their recent highs and had actually become a good bargain on a protein unit basis – I guess that everyone else notice this too so the demand increased and the prices move back higher once again.

 

Corn gluten feed prices are doing little expect following corn prices up and down – a dollar here and a dollar there.   

 

 

Major importers of USA corn by-products – Jan/Apr 2013 – in m/t

 

	Distillers Dried Grains	Corn Gluten Meal	Corn Gluten Feed
Canada	158,900	18,000	8,700
Chile		35,900
China	707,300
Columbia		12,500
Egypt	47,400	59,000
Indonesia	80,900	73,500
Ireland	86,000		88,900
Israel		10,400	38,400
Japan	130,300	13,500
Malaysia		17,300
Mexico	381,700	30,100	4,100
Morocco	49,700		20,200
South Korea	134,600
Taiwan	80,100
Thailand	89,300	12,700
Turkey	172,300		110,200
Vietnam	115,600

 

 

 

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein	USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM , 45 protein	USD 680/690 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM, 50 protein	USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia
Australian Feathermeal	USD 790/810 m/t CNF Asia
Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade	USD 1030/1070 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein	USD 730/750 m/t CNF Asia
USA Feathermeal, 80 protein	USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia
USA Poultry Meal, feed grade	USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia
USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 1010/1060 m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD  465/480 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD  600/610 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD  525/535 m/t

 

USA domestic meat and bone meal prices were up a little in some areas and down a little in others but overall there was very little change in the export prices from the USA.  However with Australian export prices moving higher there has been a little jump in USA CNF Asia prices too.

 

While animal protein prices do look like they want to move higher, the weakness in fishmeal prices may stop them from going too high but then with soybean/soymeal prices looking at higher levels there does not seem to be too many reasons for any protein items to move lower – at least not in the short term.  Perhaps, if all is well with the USA crop of soybeans and we see some weakness in soymeal and other vegetable proteins then there could be a dip in animal protein prices.  I would not expect too much of a dip as MBM is priced quite well these days against other proteins and could probably face a drop in vegetable proteins without any serious weakness, just a narrowing of the spread between animal and vegetable protein.   

 

 

 

Major importers of USA animal protein – Jan/Apr 2013 – in m/t

 

	Meat and bone meal Includes both pork and poultry meal	Feathermeal
Indonesia	11,600	37,600
Chile		18,300
Germany		1,300
Mexico	11,400
Canada	13,500
Philippines	14,100
China	7,400
Thailand	6,600
Guatemala	3,400
Ecuador	2,300

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 

Peru catch is up close to 900,000 m/t as of the last report that I saw this represents about 210,000 m/t of fishmeal.  However, some bad weather did reduce the catch for a couple of days and the number of vessels fishing dropped to almost none. Shows what some very bad weather can do.

 

There was also another dip in prices this week as higher grades were of by about USD 50 m/t with the lower grades only down by about USD 20 m/t.  current prices are the lowest that we have seen in quite a while.

 

According to trade reports there has been bad weather in China that has delayed any demand for aqua use and prices in China are falling quickly as traders try to move some fishmeal due to worries that demand will not be there for the stocks on hand.  Of course this is worrying the producers in Peru who don't see any new business from China.  Producers in Peru are estimated to have unsold fishmeal stocks of about 125,000 m/t and with no buyers the prices could slide lower.

 

In Scandinavia there are worries about the very late appearance of sand eels this year, as they are the basis for much fishmeal at this time of the year. Speculation is that the cold spring has delayed the sand eels and they are waiting for warmer weather (aren't we all).  They are bound to appear shortly but their late appearance is impacting fishmeal production and holding prices steady.

   

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
FAQ basis 65 protein	1600/1620 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam	1680/1700 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1750/1770 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1780/1800 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1850/1870 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1900/1920 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk	2600/2650
Fish oil – crude drums	2750/2800
Fish oil – flexitank	2700/2750
Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA	3000/3300

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon