Hammersmith Marketing Ltd - Grain Trading
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT June 15, 2013
(a Bahamas Corporation)
France: Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564 Fax: 33.4.5774.7575
13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
SECTION 1: FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The USDA report this week was seen as bearish by just about everyone and as a result we have seen the prices for all grains and oilseed slipping lower as the week ended --- well except perhaps for the old crop prices where, while still a little weaker, the current stock situation helped to keep old crop firmer.
Looking at the corn situation we have limited nearby stocks and what could be tremendous new crop supplies. So we see the market going in two directions: higher for anyone needing shipment in the next couple of months than much lower for new crop shipments. There is not too much talk this week about crop planting as it looks to be all done and the weather for the next few days looks to be fine for most of the USA to get those wee corn plants pushing up. The expectations for the crop are also not bad with close to 65 percent of the corn crop expected to be in good/excellent condition and this should only improve in coming days with good warm temperatures, some sunshine and a little rain to get the growing going.
As to prices, probably not much weakness in old crop unless demand falls way off but very good weather could tend to push the new crop prices lower. Of course, this can all change on a dime if the weather goes bad so be careful and prudent with your buying.
Soybeans too were down on the week both in old crop and new crop but it is expected that the new crop prices should slide lower over the next few days while old crop soybeans should be able to hold their price due to the very tight supply situation in the USA.
The soybean planting is coming along very well too with about 85/88 percent planted expected to show in Monday's report and this is only a little off from the average of 91 percent for this week in previous years. Not too far behind and easy to catch up and not enough delay to have nay effect on the crop yield come harvest time.
There were some comments in the trade that the soybean crush could be down a little and if so this would put upward pressure on soymeal prices and with the good demand that we see for soymeal it would not take too much to push prices higher.
FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 276/280 Jun/Sep |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 315/319 Jun/Sep |
| Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000 m/t | USD 275>>250 July/Sep |
| Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port | USD 284/287 |
| Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver | USD 272/278 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 269>>248 June>>Sep |
| Wheat bran, Black Sea | USD 220/225 |
| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 258/260 |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 240/250 Dec/Jan new crop |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea | USD 256>>250 July>>Sep new crop |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 270/275 |
| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 298>>265 June>>Sep |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 320>>285 June>>Sep |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 264>>257 Jun/Aug |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 233>>225 July/Aug/Sep |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000 m/t | USD 275>>255 June>>Sep |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 296/299 |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free | USD 270>>249 Jul>>Sep new crop |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free | USD asked 220/bid 205 July/Aug |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 532>>499 Jun>>Oct |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 565>>535 Jun>>Oct |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 545>>510 Spot>>J/J/A/S |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 507>>465 J/J/A/S |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 536>>484 Spot>>J/J/A/S |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 488>>445 J/J/A/S |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB | USD 620/630 |
Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 222/225 m/t |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 690/7000 m/t |
| DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 299/301 m/t June/Aug |
| DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports | USD 374/378 m/t June/Aug |
One would think that corn by-product prices would follow corn prices lower but that is not always the case. As we see again this week with corn gluten meal, the demand for protein can keep prices higher than one might expect – it seems that the recent low prices on corn gluten meal are now a thing of the past.
The situation with corn by-products this week is that they did not have enough time so far to react to the drop in corn prices after the USDA report, so it is expected that we should see some weakness in DDGS and corn gluten feed prices next week. Corn gluten meal is expected to remain reasonably steady, as the demand for protein is strong.
Speaking of corn gluten feed, in quite a few export markets it is a tough sell at present, due to the quite low price of wheat bran from the Black Sea. Not too much call for CGF when wheat bran prices are very low.
There was the comment in the trade this week that with the old crop tightness in soymeal and corn there will be more DDGS demand in the USA domestic market, which could easily push up both domestic and export DDGS prices in the next few weeks. Asian buyers are in the DDGS market but, as normal, are bidding quite a bit below the current price levels and will probably have to move their buying ideas higher.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM , 45 protein | USD 680/690 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM, 50 protein | USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Feathermeal | USD 800/820 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade | USD 1030/1070 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein | USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Feathermeal, 80 protein | USD 820/830 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, feed grade | USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 1040/1070 m/t CNF Asia |
The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk
| Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein | USD 475/490 m/t |
| Feathermeal 80 protein USA | USD 600/610 m/t |
| Poultry meal 57 protein, Eastern USA | USD 525/535 m/t |
There seems to be very little to say on the animal protein export market from the USA this week as the changing situation in the vegetable protein side has gotten everyone wondering where prices are going. We did see that USA and NZ MBM prices were up a little this week and feathermeal in export markets looked just a little higher but overall there was really little change from last week.
One can imagine that is corn gluten meal slips lower and fishmeal remains weak then there could be some weakness in the animal protein markets, especially domestically in the USA. But lower domestic USA price do not always translate into lower export prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Fishing is coming along very well in Peru with the average day still over 60,000 m/t of catch but the odd day close to 90,000 m/t. As of the end of the week, the total catch is just over 1.3 million tons which is well on the way to the quota level of 2.05 million m/t. So, with just over 700,000 m/t left to catch and an average of 60,000 m/t per day it looks like another 12 days or so of good fishing should finish off the season --- unless there is bad weather or a fishing ban.
According to trade report, even with slow sales, most of the available fishmeal for June shipment has been sold and buyers will have to now book July or August.
With about 170,000 m/t of unsold fishmeal kicking around, the producer prices have slipped a little but some are saying that we are at the bottom now and that prices should be steady to higher in the next few weeks. There is little business in the market at present so the chances of higher prices look rather slim at present but one never knows, as it would only take some serious interest from China to get the market very excited.
There has been quite a bit of comment in the press in Peru about the "greedy" fishing companies and how the government is having to set tight restrictions in order to protect fishing and the fish supply for human consumption. Needless to say the fishing industry is coming out very strongly against the government's comments and against many of the government's fishing programs.
Also, on fishmeal exports, China is the major buyer of Peruvian fishmeal and so far in 2013 the business to China is down by close to 70 percent – it is not hard to understand why Peruvian fishmeal prices are slipping.
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port |
| | |
| FAQ basis 65 protein | 1580/1600 m/t |
| 65/66 pro standard steam | 1630/1650 m/t |
| 67 protein standard steam | 1700/1720 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1740/1760 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1760/1780 m/t |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1780/1800 m/t |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1800/1820 m/t |
| | |
| Fish oil .. crude bulk | 2200/2250 |
| Fish oil – crude drums | 2350/2400 |
| Fish oil – flexitank | 2300/2350 |
| Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/3000 |
| | |
INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
Wayne Bacon
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon
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