Weekly report -- June 22, 2013

 

 

Hammersmith Marketing Ltd  - Grain Trading

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   June 22, 2013

                                                       (a Bahamas Corporation)

 

 

 

France:  Rep. Office: 33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: 33.6.8068.4564    Fax: 33.4.5774.7575

13-220 Quartier La Galine, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

Head Office: Trident Services, Kings Court, Bay Street, PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas.

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com       SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

 

This weeks report is a little more colourful than usual.  I thought that I would just jazz things up a little so it didn't look quite as conservative.  The content is still the same just the colours have been added.

 

SECTION 1:  FEED GRAINS -- VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Looking at corn prices this week, there is still quite a price premium for old crop versus new crop corn but the premium is narrowing a little as new crop corn has tended to move a little higher.  There is still a USD 25 m/t premium for the old crop but as concerns develop for the new crop the spread tightens.

 

Next week we have two USDA reports:  Grain Stocks and Acreage and the some feel that the stocks may be lower which will push old crop prices higher while the Acreage for corn might be lower and could push corn prices a tad higher.  Corn stocks are expected to be lower than last year and planted acres are thought to be down just a little from previous ideas but there does not seem to be any reason to expect new crop corn prices to move higher.  Looks like, as long as the weather stays good, the new crop corn prices should continue their slow and easy slide to lower levels.

 

Of course, with the USDA, you never know if they have a surprise in mind but most of the trade experts are not really expecting any surprises on corn stocks or acreage.

 

Soybeans and soymeal were both lower on the week and much of this was good to very good weather forecasts and a quite good crop condition report.  USA soybean plantings seem to be about on target or only slightly behind and the crop condition is expected to be even better in this week's report.

 

Now, what about the USDA reports, it looks like much of the trade feels that the soybean stocks report will have to show increased stock levels and increased planted acres --- both of which will tend to push prices lower.  If you put together the expected bearish news in the USDA reports with the very good weather forecasts that we are seeing then it seems quite likely that soybean prices will move lower.

 

It will be interesting to see what happens to prices early in the week or will most buyers/seller stay out of the market in advance of the reports rather than trying to speculate on where the market will go.

 

Should be an interesting week, capped off by a couple of important and trend setting USDA reports.

 

 

USA crop condition Report 2013	Very poor %	Poor %	Fair %	Good %	Excellent %
Corn	2	6	28	52	12
Last year	2	7	28	52	11
Soybeans	1	5	30	54	10
Last year	3	9	32	48	8
Sorghum	5	8	34	46	7
Last year	3	10	40	42	5

    

 

FOB port or location specified .. prices in US$ .. in metric tones:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 279/285 Jun/Oct
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 326/329 Jun/Oct
Wheat, milling Black Sea 11.5 pro – 30,000 m/t	USD 280>>260 July/Sep
Wheat, soft milling, France, Rouen port	USD 262/265
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 263/276 Dec/Jan new crop
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 270>>245 June>>Sep
Wheat bran, Black Sea	USD 220/225
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 245/247
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 235/245 Dec/Jan new crop
Barley, feed, Black Sea	USD 250>>242 July>>Sep new crop
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 270/275

 

Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 303>>249 June>>Oct new crop
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 321>>274 June>>Oct new crop
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD  267>>260  Jun/Aug
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD  230>>224  July/Aug/Sep
Corn, FOB Black Sea – 30,000 m/t	USD  275>>255 June>>Sep
Corn, FOB France	USD  290/300
Sorghum, FOB Texas, low tannin, GMO free	USD  274>>258 Jul>>Sep new crop
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port, high tannin, GMO free	USD  asked 220/bid 210 July/Sep

 

Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD  562>>468 Jun>>Oct new crop
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD  590>>500 Jun>>Oct new crop
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD  568>>485 Spot>>J/J/A/S
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD  499>>454  J/J/A/S
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD  554>>480 Spot>>J/J/A/S
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD  488>>445  J/J/A/S
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FOB	USD  610/620

 

Bulk vessel shipments, minimum 5000 m/t

 

Corn Gluten Feed,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   222/225 m/t
Corn Gluten Meal,  USA FOB NOLA	USD   700/710 m/t
DDGS, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   293/298 m/t June/Sep
DDGS, 35 profat, CNF Asian ports	USD   375>>367 m/t June/Sep

 

Not too much to report on corn by-products this week as export business seems to have come to a halt as buyers expect lower prices in coming weeks but sellers are not all that happy to sell at lower levels – at least not so far.  The one item that is certainly not going any lower is corn gluten meal, as prices continue higher week on week.  The recent low price levels for CGM are all gone and we are back up to the previous high levels and it looks like these higher prices for CGM will stay with us for a while since demand is enough to prices up.

 

DDGS prices were a little higher this week but only marginally with no clear market price trend seen at present. But, with export orders limited and everyone waiting to see what the USDA has to say in their next reports, business could be slow for the next few days.  With few buyers, it would seem that the general feeling is that prices will be going lower.

 

There is a report of some USA corn gluten feed in Turkey that has to be re-exported due to GMO problems – it is only a couple of thousand tons but it is difficult to move as there are limited markets for CGF close to Turkey and the goods have been sitting in Turkey since February.  One hopes that the GMO situation in Turkey will become clearer in the near future as shipments to Turkey, from any GMO country, have become high-risk shipments in the past couple of months.    

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Paraguay Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Paraguay Meat & Bone meal 48/50 protein	USD 530/540 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 mt CNF Asia
Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 550/560 m/t CNF Asia
Europe Meat & Bone meal, 45 protein Europe Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein	USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal Australian Poultry meal, pet food grade	USD 650/660 mt CNF Asia USD 730/740 m/t CNF Asia USD 680/690 m/t CNF Asia USD 1030/1070 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia USD 820/830 m/t CNF Asia USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia USD 1040/1070  m/t CNF Asia

 

 

The following indications are at producer's factory, ex-works in bulk

 

Meat and bone meal, USA, 50 protein	USD  480/490 m/t
Feathermeal  80 protein USA	USD  610/630 m/t
Poultry meal  57 protein, Eastern USA	USD  540/550 m/t

 

You will notice that I have been able to expand my animal protein indication price listing a little this week, as producers/exporters seem to be a little more willing to provide pricing information.  We also see that there is more Argentina meat and bone meal available at reasonably competitive prices when you consider the very good quality level from Argentina.  Paraguay is also now supplying limited quantities of higher protein, better quality meat and bone meal with actual protein levels in excess of 48 percent up to a recent high of 51 percent.  The price for this product is higher than for the normal Paraguay MBM but, with the much higher protein level, a few dollars a ton in price is well worth it.

 

Overall, international prices for animal proteins have not changed much, up a little her and down a little there.  However, there was at least one trade report that felt that prices will trend higher in coming weeks since MBM still seems to be priced a little low against other proteins and with both feathermeal and poultry meal there is steady demand and prices look more likely to move higher than lower.

   

 

 

 

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

Fishing in Peru is up to 80 percent of quota landed which leaves just over 400,000 m/t to catch but with the recent catch looking to be about 45,000 m/t per day it should take about another ten days or so to finish off the quota.

 

One interesting note is that the 400,000 m/t southern region quota from January 1, 2013 will expire at the end of June with almost nothing landed in six months against the quota – c'est la vie. 

 

There was some pickup in export sales business this week as buyers from several major importing countries were in the market – perhaps not for large quantities but at least they were there.  However the current sales levels is not able to make much of a dent in the building stocks of fishmeal and the rumour persists in the trade that China is just waiting for prices to drop before buying.  So, it is a bit of a Mexican stand-off with buyers looking for lower prices and producers hoping to hold the price line while a small mountain of fishmeal builds up.  So, who will blink first, the buyers with shrinking stocks on hand or the producers who see stocks growing every day.  A rough estimate shows that the current stocks in Peru are about 240,000 m/t with another 95,000 m/t or so still to come from the balance of the quota – this stock level should be about 3.5 months of sales/shipments which will get us into late October before stocks are gone and the next fishing should start in November.  Perhaps supplies, due to the lower quota, will not be quite as tight as expected but then we have not seen any significant buying from China as yet and that can certainly change the market situation.

 

Actual sales prices seem to be steady but buyers are bidding below quoted levels and it is expected that the odd hungry producer is going to start taking some of that lower bid business which could bring prices down further in coming days.

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port
FAQ basis 65 protein	1580/1600 m/t
65/66 pro standard steam	1630/1650 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1700/1720 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1740/1760 m/t
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1760/1780 m/t
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1780/1800 m/t
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1800/1820 m/t
Fish oil .. crude bulk	2200/2250
Fish oil – crude drums	2350/2400
Fish oil – flexitank	2300/2350
Fish oil – Omega 3 – 28%EPA/DHA	2800/3000

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

Wayne Bacon

 

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete.  Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy.  All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2013 Wayne S. Bacon