Weekly report - Aug 08, 2015

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   August 08, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

USA commodity futures prices moved higher this week as the markets seemed to expect that the USDA WASDE report next week would be bullish for corn and soybeans with the general feeling that the USDA will lower production estimates. While all of this is just guess work it is supported by some private forecasts that show lower yield numbers for beans and corn.

 

Soybeans moved higher on Friday due partially to the expectation of lower production but also due to new Chinese purchases of soybeans. The weather for soybeans still looks good but as some experts are saying – not as good as it has been – with some worried that the weather will be too hot and dry for the soybean crops and that yields could be lower than most had been expecting. Of course, it doesn't take too much to get the market excited this time of year. Any factor at all that has the slightest chance of affecting the crops will cause a wee rally in prices.

 

For corn, there were a couple of forecast that showed expected production to be lower than the last USDA numbers and this helped move prices just a little higher on the week. The weather doesn't look to be any problem at all for the corn crop but still most experts are of the opinion that USDA yield numbers must move lower and this is bullish for corn prices. Now, corn prices may not have a major rally coming but any drop in yield in the USDA numbers could quite easily stop prices from moving lower. There was the comment from the futures side that there are many shorts in the corn market that could be scared off by any small rally and if they all cover their shorts then a small rally can become much bigger.

 

In general the expert all seem to feel that we have seen the low point in the corn market and that steady to higher prices look to be the trend rather than lower prices.

 

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – August 04, 2015

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Spring wheat	14		56	23	6	1
Barley	17		51	25	6	1
Corn	17		53	21	7	2
Sorghum	9		59	25	4	3
Soybeans	13		50	26	8	3

@USDA

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – August 04, 2015

 

Winter crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Wheat	21		56	17	5	1
Durum	21		57	16	5	1
Barley	30		56	11	2
Barley spring	8		57	26	8	2
Corn	8		50	24	13	6

@France AgriMer

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$17/17.50	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$53/54.00	Steady	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$35/36.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$37/38.00	Steady	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$36/37.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$22/23.00	Steady	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$42/43.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$54/55.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$42/43.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$41/42.00	Up $1.00	x
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$54/55.00	Down $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$35/36.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$36/37.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Up $2.00	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$39/40.00	Steady	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$33/34.00	up $2.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$28/29.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Europe	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$36/37.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$8,50/9.00	Down $0.50	x
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$9.00/9.50	Down $0.50	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$15/16.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to China	$35/36.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$38/39.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$42/43.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
Baltic Dry Index	1200	Up 69	x
Baltic Capesize Index	2512	Up 303	x
Baltic Panamax Index	1021	Down 2	x
Baltic Supramax Index	904	Up 5	x
Baltic Handisize Index	438	Up 15	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	691	Down 38	x

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2015/October 2015

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 210/215	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 223/229	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 176/181	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 185/191	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 193/196	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 191/193	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 189/191	x
Wheat, milling, Argentina, upriver	USD 217/225	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 169/175	x
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 187/190	x
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 163/168	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 174/178	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 215/220	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 171/176	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 181/184	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 154/160	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 150/155	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 189/192	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 204/207	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 192/196	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 249>>220	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 155/160	x
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 372/377	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 415/420	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 389/394	x
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 360/364	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 383/387	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 348/355	x
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 560/570	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 381/385	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 366/372	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 365/371	x
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD no prices	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 385/390	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   685/690 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   150/155 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   213/217 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   269/273 m/t	x

 

The USDA's latest corn processing report was issued this week and shows that DDGS production in June is up by about 4.4% over May at just a shade under 2 million m/t. Corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal production were both down slightly at 324,000 m/t for CGF and 92,000 m/t for CGM. It is interesting to note that total DDGS exports so far in 2015 are just under 6 million m/t, which represents about 50% of the total production, year to date. For corn gluten meal the six months export total of 429,000 is close to 65% of total US production while the percentage is much lower for corn gluten feed with exports only being equal to one month's production, just over 15%.

 

According to trade reports, the export prices for all items - DDGS, CGM, CGF – were a little weaker even with soymeal prices moving a little higher. However, domestic prices were quite a bit lower with CGM prices said to be between USD 15 and 20 m/t lower in the domestic market. Also in the US domestic market, CGF was down by about USD 5 m/t as were prices for DDGS but export prices for all three items were steady on the week.

 

If the US domestic market continues weak then it is expected that some of that weakness will appear in the export market. However, the USDA WASDE report that will come out next week could just set a new price trend – only time will tell.

 

 

USA Corn by-product exports – January to June 2015 – in m/t – major destinations 

 

	Distillers Dried Grains DDGS	Corn Gluten Feed	Corn Gluten Meal
Canada	247,700	15,200	30,100
Chile			60,900
China	3,345,500
Colombia	59,600	30,600	47,100
Costa Rica	34,000
Egypt	58,500	8,300	113,700
El Salvador	24,400		8,200
Germany		29,700
Honduras	20,000
Indonesia	100,900		78,800
Ireland	117,200	91,800
Israel	16,400	77,700
Japan	125,300
Malaysia			9,300
Mexico	773,300	13,100	19,000
Morocco	48,600	27,800
Peru			12,600
Philippines	40,800
Portugal		10,100
South Korea	168,000	16,500
Spain		17,200
Taiwan	83,500		8,300
Thailand	173,500		14,400
Turkey	28,900
UK	48,400	16,800
Vietnam	214,900

@USDA

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia  USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 510/530 m/t CNF Asia  USD 700/720 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 495/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia  USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia

 

Animal protein prices into Asia were steady this week as sellers tried to push prices higher but buyers showed no interest in higher price levels. There were some reports of buyers looking for spot shipments and paying a decent premium to get Aug/Sep shipments.

 

Supplies out of Australia and New Zealand are getting tighter and this should put some upward pressure on the price into Asia in coming days. USA prices into Asia have been a tad too high of late but is the OZ/NZ prices form up then the US should be back in the game – at least to Indonesia, which is the largest buyer of US animal proteins.

 

In the US domestic market both MBM and feathermeal were moving a little higher with poultry meal being steady for now.

 

For the next few weeks the trend seems to be higher for export prices are supplies are not all that great and demand is steady.

  

 

 

 

 

USA Animal Protein exports – January to June 2015 – in m/t

 

	Meat and bone meal Incl pork and poultry meal	Feathermeal
Bangladesh	3,800
Canada	24,800	6,200
Chile		13,700
China	12,400
Ecuador	5,000
Indonesia	53,500	25,000
Mexico	10,000
Netherlands	5,500
Philippines	5,300
Thailand	3,700
Vietnam		2,500
Vietnam	5,800

@USDA

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

After all is said and done and the Peruvian fishing has ended, it looks like about 99% of the northern quota and 76% of the southern quotas were landed. The north ended only about 20,000 m/t short of the 2.58 million m/t quota with the south being close to 90,000 m/t shy of the 375,000 m/t quota. The south kicked off their new quota of 450,000 m/t on August 1^st and hopefully the new season will see a little better fishing.

 

According to the trade in Peru, the fishmeal business has been quite active with a number of major buyers covering position but there still seems to be very little interest from the big buyers in Europe --- South American prices remain too high to compete in Europe.

 

Fishmeal prices in Peru remain steady, just as they have been for a couple of weeks, and if the sales volume to Asia remains good then there would seem to be little reason for prices to slip lower.

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,535
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,420
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,460
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,540
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,540

 

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	No prices
65/66 protein	1300/1320 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1350/1370 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1400/1430 m/t	1530/1550
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1480/1500 m/t	1580/1600
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1520/1540 m/t	1600/1630
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1600/1620 m/t	1630/1650
Fish oil, crude bulk	1900/1950	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2000/2050
Fish oil, flexi tank	2050/2100
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2400/2450

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon