Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 30, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
Sorry to be a day late with the report but I was flying back from the US yesterday and did not have the time to get it done. I was in New York and Boston where the weather was hot and steamy. At least here in France the evenings are much cooler than the hot days but not in NY and Boston where hot means hot for 24 hours a day.
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
Other than wheat prices, the grain/oilseed markets were only a little bit lower this week in the US. Not much at all happened to corn prices as both the futures and cash prices were steady during the week. Futures did try to move a little higher but couldn't and then tried to move lower and couldn't, so all remained much as before. There was some word from France that the French corn situation is probably not as bad as had been expected and this caused a good drop in French corn prices – prices had been pushed much higher over the past couple of weeks as crop damage had seemed very bad due to the lack of rainfall.
Most experts don't seem to see any good reason for corn prices in the US to move higher over the next few weeks – the weather still looks good, yields are expected to be good and the world is full of corn, so not much room to move higher. The IGC report issued last week shows no major changes from previous corn forecasts and expected international trade shipment levels are expected to be about the same as last year – total production is down a little but overall there is certainly no shortage of corn in world markets.
Soybeans had an exciting week in the futures market with lots of downs and ups as the market tried to decide what was actually happening with exports and crops. The export sales were actually higher than many had expected which seemed to stop soybeans from going lower. The only overall weakness in soybeans was in old crop prices where markets were off by about USD 5 m/t as the limited supply of old crop beans may not be as low as thought as old crop business is down a tad. These days there is little difference in price between old crop beans and new crop – we are just getting to close to harvest for there to be much of a spread left.
The weather in the US continues to look very good for soybeans, so not much reason to push prices higher in the short term. As a matter of fact the futures price for November beans did hit a new low earlier this week before moving up a little.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – August 25, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Corn | 19 | 50 | 21 | 7 | 3 | |
| Sorghum | 12 | 56 | 25 | 5 | 2 | |
| Soybeans | 14 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 3 | |
@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – August 25, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Barley spring | 9 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 2 | |
| Corn | 7 | 49 | 24 | 14 | 6 | |
@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $15/15.50 | Down $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $42/43.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $34/35.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $35/36.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $8,50/9.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $33/34.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $35/36.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 903 | Down 91 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1071 | Down 488 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 974 | Down 80 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 931 | Up 1 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 479 | Up 15 | x |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 609 | Down 30 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR September 2015/December 2015
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 197/207 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 216/222 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 172/176 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 175/184 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 190/194 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 179/182 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 176/179 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 225/230 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 168/172 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 176/179 | X |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 160/166 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 173/176 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 260/265 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 171/177 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 181/186 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 152/157 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 151/157 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 171/176 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 189/191 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 176/180 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 201>>191 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 135/140 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 347/355 | X |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 397/405 | X |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 384/390 | X |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 347/352 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 382/388 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 324/332 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 540/550 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 383/386 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 363/369 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 361/368 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 340/346 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 650/660 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 150/160 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 197/200 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 257/260 m/t | x |
Corn by-product prices were mixed this week in both the export and domestic markets in the US. DDGS prices were steady in the export market and the same was seen in much of the domestic market while both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were lower for export and domestic. The actual corn prices were not much lower but CGF dropped by as much as USD 10 m/t in the domestic market and the same for export. CGM domestic prices were down about USD 5 m/t on average but down a little more for export at about USD 10 m/t lower.
DDGS prices did very little this week but the China situation is bound to become a burden for DDGS prices over the next few weeks until we see if China will keep up the very large volume of DDGS imports.
The US Grains Council says that export demand for DDGS should pick up in coming weeks as we get closer to the US corn harvest and corn gets down to pre-harvest low price levels.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 520/530 m/t CNF Asia USD 575/585 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 530/550 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/580 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia |
Chinese buyers of meat and bone meal are reported to have dropped their bid prices quite a bit – some say to less than USD 500 m/t for 50 protein MBM. So far there are no sellers willing to drop their prices quite this far. Prices to other Asian destinations are a little firmer than for China but even there buyers are bidding below the market as they feel that if shipments to China drop then so will prices. However, on the supply side there is not all that much MBM available from NZ/OZ, so prices are not dropping as buyer are hoping.
In the US, domestic MBM prices have moved lower with MBM down about USD 10 m/t, some say as much as USD 20 m/t. US poultry meal prices are steady with pet food grade poultry meal moving higher. Feathermeal prices are also steady but some expect prices to drop in coming days.
With soymeal and corn gluten prices continuing to drop it is difficult for animal protein prices to show any strength – so the trend has got to be to lower levels until vegetable proteins stop falling.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
According to trade reports from Peru, there was very little activity in the fishmeal market due to the situation in China – no one really knows what is happening and with China being the major buyer of fishmeal and change in China is of great concern to fishmeal producers.
The few buyers that are in the market are bidding well below current price levels as they feel that the China problems will push prices lower but sellers are not all that willing to accept low bids – at least not as yet.
MSI Ceres says that there is concern in Peru that the chemical explosion in Tianjin could affect fishmeal imports as fishmeal is considered a "dangerous cargo". Reports say that some fishmeal shipments have not been unloaded due to the concern over the dangerous cargo classification of fishmeal. The industry has not worked hard enough to have the "dangerous cargo" classification for fishmeal change – it is true that the classification did apply in the distant part but certainly not in recent years.
China import details show that Peru is about 46% of the China market with the balance of the imports spread among 10 or 15 other origins with no one origin being greater that 9%. After Peru the major origins are Chile, Russia, Vietnam, Thailand and the USA – all of which total close to 40%.
Export information released in Peru shows that China represents 82.5% of the Peru fishmeal export market with Chile, Taiwan and Japan being a total of 11% of exports. Peru's total fishmeal exports for the first seven months are at 355,000 m/t.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,630 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,500 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,570 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,570 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | No prices |
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| 65/66 protein | 1390/1410 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1420/1440 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1480/1500 m/t | 1420/1440 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1620/1640 m/t | 1450/1480 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1640/1660 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1660/1680 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1700/1800 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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