Hammersmith Trade Services
A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.
WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT August 15, 2015
Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
There certainly were a number of surprises in the market this week – first with the USDA WASDE report coming in bearish for almost everything then China devaluating its currency and adding in new import documentation requirements. There were lots of reasons for prices to be very active.
Corn prices finished off the week only being down a little in futures and cash markets – this after a couple of very active down and up days. The week ended with US prices down by no more than USD 3 m/t. The same can't be said for France where corn prices are up very strongly as the long hot summer without rain continues to damage the French corn crop. France exported close to 8 million m/t of corn last year – almost all the other EU countries – and if these exports drop by 30% this year then EU countries may be looking for sources for 2.5 million m/t of corn. On the other hand the EU is harvesting very large wheat crops this year so perhaps a chunk of the drop in corn will be made up by EU feed wheat or feed barley.
New crop soybeans had a bad week, as the USDA WASDE report caused prices to tumble on bearish 2015/16 numbers. We now see new crop soybeans offered at about USD 20 m/t below old crop prices. But not only do we have the bearish WASDE report but we also have the new China currency and documentation situation and a great deal of speculation on what China will do for new soybean purchases. Of course China will buy soybeans but how many more and when and from what origin. Ah, so many questions and so few answers.
Also a tad on the bearish side – the US weather looks very good for both corn and beans – there seems to be little reason to expect higher prices in the short term.
USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – August 11, 2015
| Crop condition | Excellent % | Good % | Fair % | Poor % | Very Poor % | |
| Spring wheat | 14 | 55 | 23 | 6 | 2 | |
| Barley | 17 | 49 | 26 | 6 | 2 | |
| Corn | 18 | 52 | 21 | 7 | 2 | |
| Sorghum | 10 | 57 | 25 | 5 | 3 | |
| Soybeans | 14 | 49 | 26 | 8 | 3 | |
@USDA
France AgriMer – crop condition report – August 11, 2015
| Winter crops | Very Good % | Good % | Average % | Bad % | Very Bad % | |
| Wheat | 21 | 56 | 17 | 5 | 1 | |
| Durum | 21 | 57 | 16 | 5 | 1 | |
| Barley | 30 | 56 | 11 | 2 |
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| Barley spring | 9 | 57 | 26 | 8 | 2 | |
| Corn | 7 | 48 | 24 | 14 | 6 | |
@France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
The Capesize Baltic Dry Index had quite a drop this week as the situation in China upset the market – China is the major world user of Capesize vessels and any concern over the Chinese economy has a large effect on Capesize prices.
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $16/16.50 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $27/28.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $28/29.00 | Down $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $53/54.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $42/43.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $55/56.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $41/42.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $54/55.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $35/36.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $39/40.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $35/36.00 | up $2.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $27/28.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $36/37.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t | $8,50/9.00 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t | $9.00/9.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $32/33.00 | Down $3.00 | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t | $38/39.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t | $43/44.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $34/35.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 1200 | Down 145 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1884 | Down 628 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 1057 | Up 36 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 905 | Up 1 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 449 | Up 11 | X |
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| Bunkerworld fuel index | 680 | Down 11 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2015/October 2015
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 208/215 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 226/235 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 176/180 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 185/189 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 190/193 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 188/191 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 185/188 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 215/223 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 169/175 | x |
| Wheat Bran, Black Sea | USD no prices |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 181/184 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver | USD 161/165 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 174/177 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD no prices | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 164/173 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 178/180 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 152/158 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 148/153 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 176/182 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 210/213 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD no prices | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 215/218 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 145>>130 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48 protein, FOB NOLA | USD 355/360 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 405/410 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 388/394 | x |
| Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina | USD 344/355 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 382/386 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 334/341 | x |
| Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ | USD 550/560 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 374/379 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 364/370 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 366/371 | x |
| Soybeans, Rotterdam | USD no prices | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 365/370 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 680/690 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 165/170 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 208/213 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia | USD 264/269 m/t | x |
There were no major changes in corn by-product prices this week but then these products do tend to react a little slower than corn prices. DDGS was hit three times this week but didn't collapse: the devaluation of the China currency with china being the largest buyer of export DDGS, the new documentation requirements for importation into China and then the weakness in both corn and soymeal prices. There were certainly a good few reasons to expect DDGS prices to slip lower. Perhaps there was little price weakness this week as the market digests the new factors and we will see serious price changes next week – at least for export prices. The biggest price factor in the export market is probably the Chinese currency devaluation and the effect that this may have on the DDGS export business. After all, China has taken 3.3 million m/t of DDGS in the first 6 months of 2015.
Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed were reasonably calm on the week and there was little change in export prices but both CGM and CGF were a little higher in the domestic USA market. CGM prices were up USD 5 to 10 m/t while CGF prices increased USD 3 to 5 m/t.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein | USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein | USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 565/575 m/t CNF Asia USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia USD 760/780 m/t CNF Asia |
As you will notice there have been some major changes to Australian prices and this is all down to me receiving an update on prices directly from Australia that showed my prices were out of whack and needed some major adjustment. There are not all that many sources for animal protein prices so it is always good when I am told where and why my prices are wrong.
Trade reports in the animal protein sector state that MBM prices in Asia are moving higher quickly in those market that buy OZ/NZ/US material – in the last couple of weeks the MBM prices have jumped by USD 70 or so m/t. It seems that there must have been quite bit of demand built up that appeared after the end of Ramadan and the Eid holidays – Indonesian buyers have been very active.
In the USA domestic market meat and bone meal prices are a little weaker, probably due to the weak soymeal prices, but feathermeal has been quite strong with seasonal demand coming into play for both feathermeal and poultry meal.
Most experts feel that, over time, the prices will be driven mainly by what happens in the soymeal market bit that there will be a good number of demand driven ups and downs along the way.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
The latest IFFO report shows that fishmeal production in Peru/Chile/Northern Europe for the year to date in 2015 is up by about 15% from last year at 1.27 million m/t. The biggest share of the increase is due to the higher production levels in Peru but European production too has increased – only Chile shows a drop in production on the year.
The situation with fishoil is quite different with both Peru and Chile showing a drop in production and overall production being down by close to 15%, even with all North Atlantic countries showing increased fishoil production. Total fishoil production for Peru/Chile/North Atlantic stands at 254,000 m/t for 2015 to early August.
Looking at Peru, we see the prices for the highest grades getting a little firmer as supplies are limited and buyers seem to be interested in top end quality. However, with the revaluation of the Chinese currency one wonders what the effect will be on fishmeal business to China in coming weeks? The revaluation will raise the local import cost for fishmeal and there are some stories that local supplies have already jumped higher in price.
If the fishmeal business to China shrinks in the next few months then we will certainly see weakness in fishmeal prices as China is the largest buyer of Peru/Chile fishmeal and there are just no other markets that can take the same volume of fishmeal as China.
It looks like interesting days ahead until the China situation becomes more clear.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72 protein | 1,590 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,465 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64 protein | 1,510 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67 protein | 1,570 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70 protein | 1,570 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65 protein | No prices |
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| 65/66 protein | 1270/1300 m/t |
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| 67 protein standard steam | 1300/1350 m/t |
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| 67 protein SD 150 TVN | 1400/1430 m/t | 1400/1430 |
| 67 protein SD 120 TVN | 1450/1480 m/t | 1450/1480 |
| 67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1580/1600 |
| 68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1630/1650 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2000/2050 | 1800/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2100/2150 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2150/2200 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2400/2450 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,
FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon
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