Weekly Report - August 22, 2015

Hammersmith Trade Services

A division of Hammersmith Marketing Ltd.

 

WEEKLY FEED GRAIN AND PROTEIN REPORT   August 22, 2015

 

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

 It was a very unexciting market for corn over the past week as things seemed to calm down a great deal after the frantic market the prior week. There were a couple of comments in the trade about how the slow trade this week for corn could be a warning that corn prices will be moving lower. It seems that some experts had called for higher prices this week that just didn't happen which make them all think that lower may be the next direction for corn prices.  On the other hand some are saying that the current Pro-Farmer crop tour will come up with lower yields than the USDA and prices for corn may move higher on lower forecasted yields.

 

In Europe, French corn prices were a little lower this week as some of the panic over a poor corn crop seemed to disappear from the market. The corn situation in France is not wonderful but it seems that it is not as bad as had been contemplated.

 

Soybeans had another very soft week with pieces down by USD 10 m/t in both the cash and futures markets. Every expert in the trade seems to be very bearish on soybean prices, no matter the fact that China soybean exports were actually higher in the YTD. For the future, the trend is lower: great growing weather continues, China demand could be dropping, export sales may slide – seems like quite few reasons for lower soybean prices. It may just be a case of too much supply for the demand.    

 

USDA – USA Crop Progress Report – August 18, 2015

 

Crop condition		Excellent %	Good %	Fair %	Poor %	Very Poor %
Spring wheat	15		55	22	6	2
Barley	17		48	26	7	2
Corn	18		51	21	7	3
Sorghum	11		57	25	5	2
Soybeans	14		49	26	8	3

@USDA

 

 

France AgriMer – crop condition report – August 18, 2015

 

Winter crops		Very Good %	Good %	Average %	Bad %	Very Bad %
Wheat	21		56	17	5	1
Durum	21		57	16	5	1
Barley	30		56	11	2
Barley spring	9		57	26	8	2
Corn	7		48	24	14	6

@France AgriMer

  

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$16/16.50	Steady	X
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t(5,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$25/26.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$53/54.00	Steady	X
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$35/36.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$36/37.00	Down $1.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$35/36.00	Down $1.00	X
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$21/22.00	Down $1.00	X
US PNW China: Panamax	$20/21.00	Down $1.00	X
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$42/43.00	Steady	X
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$55/56.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$29/30.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t(4,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$43/44.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$41/42.00	Steady	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$54/55.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Steady	X
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$34/35.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Down $1.00	X
Argentina to Egypt: 50,000 m/t(10,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$40/41.00	Up $1.00	X
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$32/33.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Steady	X
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$35/36.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$26/27.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$27/28.00	Down $1.00	X
Brazil to Europe	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$36/37.00	Steady	X
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Australia to China: 40-50,000 m/t	$8,50/9.00	Steady	X
Australia to Japan: 40-50,000 m/t	$9.00/9.50	Steady	X
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-50,000 m/t	$15/16.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to China	$29/30.00	Down $3.00	X
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to East Med: coaster	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	X
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t	$38/39.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t	$44/45.00	Up $1.00	X
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$34/35.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$23/24.00	Steady	X
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$36/37.00	New info	X
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$33/34.00	Up $1.00	X
Baltic Dry Index	994	Down 206	X
Baltic Capesize Index	1559	Down 325	X
Baltic Panamax Index	1054	Down 3	X
Baltic Supramax Index	930	Up 25	X
Baltic Handisize Index	464	Up 15	x
Bunkerworld fuel index	639	Down 41	X

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR August 2015/October 2015

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 206/215	X
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 219/227	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 175/179	X
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 184/189	X
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 190/193	X
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 182/195	X
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 180/183	X
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 220/224	X
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 167/171	X
Wheat Bran, Black Sea	USD no prices	X
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 172/175	X
Barley, feed, Argentina, upriver	USD 159/163	X
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 173/176	X
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 260/265	X
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 168/173	X
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 181/186	X
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 154/160	X
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 153/157	X
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 172/177	X
Corn, FOB France	USD 198/201	X
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 180/183	X
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 202>>191	X
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 145>>130	X
Soymeal,  48 protein, FOB NOLA	USD 350/365	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 410/415	X
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 397/402	X
Soymeal, 47 pro, FOB Argentina	USD 352/358	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 388/391	X
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 337/343	X
Soymeal, 48 protein, India FAQ	USD 545/555	X
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 381/386	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 368/373	X
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 375/378	X
Soybeans, Rotterdam	USD no prices	X
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 365/370	X
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD   660/670 m/t	X
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD   160/170 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD   197/200 m/t	X
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia	USD   257/260 m/t	X

 

USA domestic DDGS prices were lower on the week by USD 5 m/t or so, some say as much as USD 10 m/t lower, with the same being seen in the export market as the Chinese situation has added concern to the export market and any drop in exports will create significant availability in the domestic market and for other export markets.

 

There seem to be some real opportunities in the market for DDGS buyers as the export questions have put producers in a selling mood – after all, if China is not buying then other buyers have to be convinced. The trouble is that in the export market there are just no buyers that can replace China's DDGS import volume.  

 

Both corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed have dropped lower this week as they are catching up with the recent weakness in corn prices. Corn gluten meal export positions are still quite tight but for late September and October things are easier and prices have dropped by USD 10 m/t and could go a little lower if corn stays soft and export sales don't skyrocket.

 

It is interesting but some USDA reports have corn gluten feed prices higher in the domestic market but confirm that both DDGS and CGM are lower.

 

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein	USD 420/430 m/t CNF Asia  USD 560/570 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45 protein	USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 510/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 565/575 m/t CNF Asia  USD 630/650 m/t CNF Asia  USD 750/770 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 550/570 m/t CNF Asia  USD 570/580 m/t CNF Asia  USD 620/640 m/t CNF Asia  USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia

 

It is reported in the trade that export prices into China are softer while Indonesia prices are still quite firm. The weakening economy in China has caused import demand to fall and prices for China quality product to slip lower. There is also some feeling that the prices into Indonesia are going to have to fall as MBM supplies from South America are priced well lower than other origins and pressure is now on all prices.

 

According to the Jacobsen Report this week, Australian exporters are looking for higher MBM prices but with little success as there is too much lower priced MBM available.

 

USA export prices are about unchanged on MBM but higher on both feathermeal and poultry meal

 

In the US domestic market, MBM is seen to be moving lower but poultry meal prices are not showing any weakness while feathermeal prices can't seem to decide to go higher or lower.

 

Overall it looks like animal protein prices should be moving lower as is the direction of soybeans and ultimately soymeal --- corn gluten meal is also a little weaker – so protein in general is a tad softer this weak or should be.  

 

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

 

Other than possible shipping quotas the major conversations all seem to concern El Nino risks in coming months. The water temperatures in Peru are significantly higher than normal and there may be a major effect on the available fish. There are also feelings that the quota for the next Peru fishing season may only be at about 1 million m/t of catch.

 

The current level of unsold fishmeal in Peru is said to be below 200,000 m/t or, as pointed out by MSI Ceres, it could be quite a bit lower as not all longer term bookings are reported.

 

The price for fishmeal is up for all quality levels and the spread between high and low quality is narrowing a little as supplies for all types tend to get a little tighter. Buyers of the higher quality levels are moving down a grade or two to find product and this is helping to move all prices higher.

 

Also, as is to be expected, the Peru fishmeal exports to the end of July show China as taking 83% of the 350,000 m/t of fishmeal exported. Chile, Taiwan and Japan follow, each with about a 4% share of the exports. As is always the way, China is the market.  

 

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72 protein	1,590
Danish fishmeal	64 protein	1,470
Peru fishmeal	64 protein	1,500
Chile fishmeal	67 protein	1,580
Iceland fishmeal	70 protein	1,580

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65 protein	No prices
65/66 protein	1390/1410 m/t
67 protein standard steam	1420/1440 m/t
67 protein SD 150  TVN	1480/1500 m/t	1420/1440
67 protein SD 120 TVN	1620/1640 m/t	1450/1480
67 protein SD 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1640/1660 m/t	1580/1600
68 protein SD 500 hist, 120 TVN	1660/1680 m/t	1650/1670
Fish oil, crude bulk	2000/2050	1700/1800
Fish oil, crude drums	2100/2150
Fish oil, flexi tank	2150/2200
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2400/2450

 

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine,

FAQ = fair average quality (normally flame or hot air dried), SD = steam dried

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2015 Wayne S. Bacon