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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
The USDA stocks and planting intentions report that was issued this week came with a few surprises – the corn planting number was higher than most everyone had forecasted and immediately pushed corn futures prices down by about USD 6 m/t. Couple the USDA report with the new China plans for corn inventory and you seem to have some very good reasons for pushing corn prices lower. It was the planting numbers that got all the attention as the stocks numbers were actually a little lower than what all the experts had forecasted.
The US interest in corn will now switch to the weather and the effect that will have on the spring corn planting – at present the weather in the northern corn areas looks good while the southern areas are having too much rain. For the next few months, US corn prices will rally and fall with the changes in the weather.
Soybean futures were higher on the week as the USDA report came in with plantings just a little below where the experts felt the numbers would be – so, fewer beans means higher prices. There has also been some bad weather in both Argentina and Brazil that could affect the harvest and, as we all know, it doesn't take much bad weather to move prices higher.
With soybeans, there was also a decent sized increase in the long positions being held by large speculators – so they seem to be looking for soybean prices to move higher. Even with Brazil increasing its crop estimates for soybeans by 1.5 million m/t that was not enough to stop soybeans from moving higher.
The USDA will issue its first winter crop report next week, so we will get a good idea how the winter wheat crop is actually doing. France has already issued their first crop report for 2016 and their winter wheat and barley seem to be in fine shape.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Up $0.50 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $20/21.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $13/14.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $29/30.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $44/45.00 | Steady | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $24/25.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $25/26.00 | up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $36/37.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | X |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $15.00/15.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $15.00/15.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Down $2.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $17/18.00 | Steady | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 450 | Up 44 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 345 | Up 143 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 535 | Up 69 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 476 | Up 3 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 272 | Up 4 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 198/201 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 207/211 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 169/173 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 162/165 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 174/178 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 171/173 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 169/171 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 183/187 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 164/167 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 165/167 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 150/155 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 162/165 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 143/148 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 158/161 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 161/164 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 196/201 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 157/160 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 172/174 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 163/166 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 165/169 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 155/160 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 317/322 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 343/347 | X |
| Soymeal, USA CNF Asia | USD 363/368 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 323/328 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 303/308 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 313/318 | X |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 276/281 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 545/550 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 361/365 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 398/403 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 340/344 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 352/356 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 370/375 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 535/540 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 585>>575 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 615>>610 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 140/145 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 170>>165 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 201>>196 m/t | x |
The USDA issued their latest "grain crushing" report this week and it shows that corn use for ethanol production was down about 5% in February which caused a similar reduction in DDGS production. DDGS produced in February was 1.79 million m/t. Both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal also showed slightly lower production in February: CGF 312,000 down 3.0% and CGM 83,800 down 4.0%.
Export prices for all corn by-products are moving lower – perhaps not for spot positions but certainly for shipment position into June/July. Domestic USA prices for DDGS were down by about USD 5 m/t as were the prices for corn gluten feed. CGM prices were steady for April/May but off by about USD 10 m/t for June/July.
At present there doesn't seem to be any reason to expect prices to move higher, especially for DDGS due to the China situation, and with the weakness in corn prices seen this week lower seems to be the rule.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 390/410 m/t CNF Asia USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 380/400 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 740/760 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein export prices were higher again this week as we seem to have gotten past the price doldrums of earlier this year – now we see some action in prices. However, some experts are saying that the recent rally is due to a short term tightness in supply and that the higher prices can't continue.
Meat and bone meal prices moved a little higher for all origins.
The Jacobsen report this week was noting that USA domestic MBM prices had increased by about 70 percent in the past three months and that, on a protein basis, MBM is higher priced than soymeal which is likely to bring any MBM price rally to a shuddering halt. Jacobsen says that the same situation exists for feathermeal with prices moving higher too much, too quickly.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
All the talk in Peru these days is about the next quota and when fishing will start. As to the quota, the estimates run from a low of 1.5 million m/t (350,000 m/t fishmeal) up to a high of about 2.5 million m/t (580,000 m/t fishmeal) with the majority of the experts thinking that fishing will begin in mid-May.
Reports from the conference in China say that there was not too much business booked for the next fishing season and that as stocks in Peru are currently so low there was little old stock sold or to sell. Word from the conference is that buyers are looking for lower prices while sellers show little interest in accepting low bids. It is also reported that fishmeal prices in China have moved higher so there seems to be little reason to expect lower fishmeal prices in the near term.
Things will probably be quite calm for fishmeal for the next while with all eyes on Peru and what will happen there.
Just for information purposes, I was offered Vietnam origin 65% protein fishmeal this week at USD 1,260 m/t FOB Vietnam – specs seem quite standard and price does not seem to be off the mark.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,770 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,480 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,475 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,550 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,730 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1310 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1395 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1430/1450 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/2850 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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