Weekly report - April 09, 2016

 

HAMMERSMITH Marketing Ltd
---------------------------------

Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,

PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154

Email:   tradegroup@hammersmith.biz    WWW:  hammersmithltd.blogspot.com    SKYPE: bacon39a  

 

Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881   Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564    Fax: +33.4.5774.7575

1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France

 

 

SECTION 1:  US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN

 

Corn prices were up slightly – about USD 3 m/t – in the futures market this week while export prices were a little lower. Export inspections for corn were higher than expected while new export sales helped push the futures market up a little. There has been a lot of talk that last week's planning intentions report overestimated the corn planting and that they just can't get that much acreage for corn. However, all the experts do seem to agree that even if the report is off a little there is still going to be an awful lot of corn in the USA come late 2016.

 

There are reports in the US that farmers are considering switching to more soybeans after the drop in prices caused by the USDA report – but this could just be experts speculating. Corn planting in parts of the USA has been delayed a little by cold weather in some areas and too much rain in others but as we have seen before – a little delay means nothing as they seem to be able to plant at 300 miles per hour.

 

Corn prices were also helped a little by rains in Argentina that are delaying the harvest and some export shipments. Nearby corn prices in Argentina have moved higher as a result.

 

A very strong finish to the week for both soybeans and soymeal pushed futures prices higher. Experts say that the Friday rally was mainly due to the increase in crude oil prices. Of course, there is also the delayed harvesting in Argentina and the slightly delayed planting in the USA to use as justifications for moving prices higher.

 

Much of the price drivers are now related to crop harvesting in Argentina and Brazil and crop planting in the USA – so, as usual, things will get exciting.

 

The USDA issued their first crop progress report this week but as it is the first report there is very little info so far. We need a few more weeks to get some actual progress in hand.

 

 

 

Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains 

 

Capesize and Panamax vessels have shown a real rally in prices as China business for ore and coal has picked up. Ship owners might even make a dollar or two one of these days. So far the rally in the largest vessels has not had too much effect on grain shipment price but if the rally continues it will move grain freight prices higher.

 

US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch)	$12/13.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT	$20/21.00	Steady	x
US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Turkey: 50,000	$21/22.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch)	$27/28.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t	$48/49.00	Up $1.00	x
US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch)	$28/29.00	Steady	x
US Gulf Japan: Panamax	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	X
US Gulf China: Panamax	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	x
US PNW South Africa	$32/33.00	Steady	x
US PNW Japan: Panamax	$14/15.00	Steady	x
US PNW China: Panamax	$13/14.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Egypt: Panamax	$40/41.00	Steady	x
US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize	$48/49.00	Steady	x
France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$26/27.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000	$29/30.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t	$30/31.00	Up $1.00	X
France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t	$45/46.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off	$25/26.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Egypt	$20/21.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t	$18/19.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch)	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Saudi Arabia	$37/38.00	Up $1.00	x
Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t	$23/24.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t	$24/25.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	X
Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Europe	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t	$21/22.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Saudi Arabia	$31/32.00	Up $1.00	x
Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t	$19/20.00	Up $1.00	x
Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t	$16.00/16.50	Up $1.00	x
Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t	$17.00/17.50	Up $2.00	x
Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
Ukraine to China	$20/21.00	Up $1.00	x
Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t  (3,000 disch)	$22/23.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch)	$10/11.00	Steady	x
Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch)	$30/31.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$23/24.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch)	$19/20.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch)	$11/12.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch)	$15/16.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k	$21/22.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t	$24/25.00	Steady	x
Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch)	$17/18.00	Steady	x
Baltic Dry Index	539	Up 89	x
Baltic Capesize Index	656	Up 311	x
Baltic Panamax Index	643	Up 108	x
Baltic Supramax Index	488	Up 12	x
Baltic Handisize Index	286	Up 14	x

 

 

 

FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:

All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise

(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)

 

ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2016

 

Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA	USD 194/196	x
Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein	USD 200/204	x
Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 169/173	x
Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t	USD 178/181	x
Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro	USD 175/179	x
Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen	USD 170/171	x
Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen	USD 169/170	x
Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver	USD 179/183	x
Wheat, feed, Black Sea	USD 166/168	x
Barley, France, Rouen port	USD 165/167	x
Barley, feed, Argentina	USD 148/152	x
Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+	USD 161/165	x
Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest	USD 140/145	x
Corn, FOB NOLA USA	USD 164>>162	x
Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest	USD 170>>167	x
Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2	USD 195/200	x
Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver	USD 161/164	x
Corn, FOB Brazil port	USD 156/160	x
Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t	USD 162/165	x
Corn, FOB France	USD 176/179	x
Corn, FOB Romania	USD 162/165	x
Sorghum, FOB Texas	USD 168/170	x
Sorghum, FOB Argentina port	USD 155/160	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA	USD 320/323	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam	USD 345/348	X
Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia	USD 357/362	x
Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam	USD 321/325	x
Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina	USD 298/302	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam	USD 310/314	x
Soymeal, FOB Brazil	USD 265/269	x
Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ	USD 540/545	x
Soybeans, FOB NOLA	USD 355/360	x
Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia	USD 396/401	x
Soybeans, Argentina, FOB	USD 336/340	x
Soybeans, Brazil, FOB	USD 349/352	x
Soybeans, Black Sea	USD 350/360	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA	USD  535/540 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont.	USD  577/582 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont.	USD  610>>605 m/t	x
Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA	USD  135/140 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA	USD  165>>158 m/t	x
DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont	USD  209>>200 m/t	x

 

Corn prices were up a little on the week but by-product prices just seemed to want to slide a little lower. Most export prices were down by about USD 5 m/t with prices for June/July showing the most weakness as closer shipment positions were mainly sold out.

 

Trade reports did show that DDGS export prices were down by about USD 5 m/t but that there were buyers trying to cover at another USD 5 m/t lower, so far with little success. Corn gluten meal prices in the US domestic market were reported to be quite weak but that has not been seen as yet in the export market. Domestic CGM prices were said to be as much as USD 20 lower so we could see more weakness in export prices this coming week. The same situation exists with corn gluten feed where the domestic market seems to be quite a bit weaker than the export market – but this too should adjust in coming days.

 

For now there really looks like no good reason to expect higher price for any by-products --- steady to lower seems to be the continuing price direction with lower probably more expected.  

 

 

 

USA Corn By-products exports – in m/t – Major Destinations – Jan/Feb 2016

 

	Distillers Dried Grains -DDGS	Corn Gluten Meal	Corn Gluten Feed
Canada	85,000	10,900	4,900
China	429,500
Colombia	25,600	15,600	5,400
Costa Rica	19,300
Egypt	18,400	22,800
Indonesia	54,900	33,500
Ireland	59,700		68,000
Israel	31,900		36,900
Japan	34,600	2,000
Korea, South	81,500
Malaysia		3,200
Mexico	340,700	6,200	2,600
Morocco			5,700
Philippines	28,200
Portugal			21,400
Taiwan	35,900	4,500
Thailand	98,700	5,300
Turkey	39,200
UK	19,500		7,700
Vietnam	99,100	1,800

@USDA GATS

 

 

Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t

 

Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein    Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein    Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein	USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia  USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 430/450 m/t CNF Asia
Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein	USD 410/430 m/t CNF Asia
Australian MBM 45 protein    Australian MBM 50 protein    Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein    Australian Poultry Meal, pet food	USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia  USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia  USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia
USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein    USA Feathermeal, 80 protein    USA Poultry Meal, feed grade    USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade	USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia  USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia  USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia  USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia

 

According to trade reports this week, the demand for animal proteins in Indonesia, in advance of the Ramadan period, is pushing prices higher. This at a time when prices were already moving higher due to other supply/demand factors. Meat and bone meal CNF Asia prices are reported to have moved to just over USD 500 m/t from some exporters. While prices to Indonesia are strong the price levels to other areas in Asia are steady or perhaps just a little higher.

 

The Jacobsen report this week was saying that the rally in prices could be short term as the supply side is quite good and alternative vegetable protein prices are weak – which could put a cap on animal protein prices.

 

In the USA, domestic animal protein prices remain strong as demand has eaten up much of the stocks on hand but, as with Asia, no one much expects an extended price rally as the protein alternatives are all moving lower in price.

 

Feathermeal has had a good run higher, pushed up by demand from both aquaculture and fertilizer markets, as reported in the Jacobsen report. They say that prices for feathermeal have jumped by about USD 160 m/t in the past month.

 

However, the longer term price trend is expected to be to steady to lower prices as it is tough to fight upstream against lower soymeal prices.

 

 

USA Animal Protein exports – in m/t – Major destinations – Jan/Feb 2016

 

Destination	Feathermeal	Meat and bone meal Incl pork and poultry meal
Canada	1,800	10,800
Chile	3,900
China	600	12,200
Germany		2,500
Holland		1,200
Indonesia	4,500	23,700
Mexico		14,800
Philippines		3,400
Vietnam	200	4,100

@USDA GATS

 

SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN

 

This between the fishing seasons period with nothing left to sell is certainly very, very quiet – all we can do these days is sweep up in the empty warehouses and speculate on the future fishing and the direction of prices.

 

It has been reported that there is a little new interest in the next fishmeal production but that buyers are bidding well below current price levels with producers not all that willing to book any low ball buyer's bids.

 

Sorry that there is not much to report on fishmeal from Peru but that will change soon once the government gets some exploratory fishing underway and we really have a good reason to start rumors.

 

Nutreco announced this week that they have developed a new fishmeal-free salmon feed. This has been developed due to the ever increasing demand for aquafeed products but the finite amount of available fishmeal. They say the new fish feed will help to avoid the spikes in fishmeal prices as seem to occur most every year. This new salmon feed formulation has been developed by the Skretting Aquaculture division on Nutreco.

  

 

European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.

 

Type	Protein %	Price per m/t USD
Herring fishmeal	72% protein	1,810
Danish fishmeal	64% protein	1,470
Peru fishmeal	64% protein	1,490
Chile fishmeal	67% protein	1,540
Iceland fishmeal	70% protein	1,800

 

 

PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:

 

ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS

Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal

 

Specification	Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port	Price per m/t Chile port
65% protein	1300/1310 m/t
65/66 protein	1330/1395 m/t
67% protein standard steam	1350/1370 m/t	No offers
67% protein 150 TVN	1420/1440 m/t	1430/1450
67% protein 120 TVN	1500/1520 m/t	1500/1520
67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN	1550/1570 m/t	1550/1570
68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN	1650/1670 m/t	1650/1670
Fish oil, crude bulk	2300/2350	2000/2100
Fish oil, crude drums	2450/2500
Fish oil, flexi tank	2550/2600
Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA	2800/2850

 

INFORMATION:  gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine

           

The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice.  Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author.  As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates

 

Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon