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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
An exciting week for corn, soybeans and soymeal – less so with wheat. Corn prices for both domestic and export moved up by USD 5 to 7 m/t while soybeans were up by close to USD 15 m/t and soymeal rallied by in excess of USD 20 m/t.
Much of the upward pressure on all the markets was due to weather concerns in both Brazil and Argentina. Reports say that South American sellers have pulled out of the market until the current weather effects are analyzed --- too hot and dry in Brazil and too wet in Argentina.
With the corn crop in Brazil just getting into the pollination stage, they don't want a lot of hot dry weather – they want a little rain (but not too much).
While the weather for corn in the USA looks to be ok in the long term one never knows for sure so it just takes some iffy news from Brazil and Argentina to panic the market.
Interesting to note that US farmers were major sellers of corn this week as prices reached recent highs – could they be expecting another dip in prices?
Soybeans and meal are being pushed higher both by the continued very wet weather in Argentina but also by the near record soybean crush level in the USA. The weather forecasts in the US look quite good for the upcoming soybean planting so it seems to be mainly South American influence that is rallying prices.
This time of year we can expect strong ups and downs from week to week as the weather changes and both the farmers and speculators try to squeeze out a little more profit from the futures side of the market. I had lunch this week with a "minute" trader in commodities who swears that he makes very good profits in trading minor changes for minutes – of course the commission he pays the broker are significant but he says that he still does very well. As a grain hedger for a lot of years, I would find it very difficult to be a minute spec trader.
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $12/13.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $24/25.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US PNW South Africa | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $14/15.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $40/41.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | x |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $27/28.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $32/33.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $47/48.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Egypt | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $18/19.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $37/38.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $32/33.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $17.00/17.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $18.00/18.50 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Down $2.00 | X |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $18/19.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 635 | Up 96 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 949 | Up 293 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 727 | Up 84 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 525 | Up 37 | X |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 321 | Up 35 | X |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 194/196 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 199/203 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 167/171 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 181/184 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 175/179 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 167/169 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 166/168 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 182/186 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 163/166 | X |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 165/167 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 160/163 | X |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 164/168 | X |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 140/145 | X |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 170>>167 | X |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 172>>169 | X |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 201/206 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 161/164 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 160/163 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 163/166 | X |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 176/179 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 162/165 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 172/175 | X |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 155/160 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 347/351 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 375/379 | X |
| Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia | USD 379/382 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 350/355 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 329/331 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 340/344 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 290/294 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 560/570 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 370/373 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 411/415 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 353/356 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 369/372 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 350/360 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 535/540 m/t | X |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 579/582 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 605>>600 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 140/145 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 162>>158 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 207>>199 m/t | X |
With corn prices being up this week one might expect to see corn by-product prices moving higher but with the drop in DDGS shipments to China and the building stock levels it is tough to see any short term price rally, at least in DDGS. It is interesting to note that while export DDGS prices trended lower the domestic DDGS prices moved just a little higher in some areas. Both corn gluten feed and corn gluten meal were lower in the US domestic market in most areas but this has not been seen in the export side.
With corn prices up by close to USD 7 m/t, it is difficult to expect that the by-product prices will remain weak. So, there should be a little move higher, at least in corn gluten meal and corn gluten feed – DDGS export prices will probably continue under pressure. Soymeal prices jumped by about USD 22 m/t but corn gluten meal (a serious protein item) did not rally at all but it will certainly catch up at some point.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 400/420 m/t CNF Asia USD 450/470 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/510 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/740 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 500/520 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 730/760 m/t CNF Asia |
Even with the rally in soymeal prices this week there was little change in export or CNF prices for animal proteins. There has still been quite a bit of buying interest from Indonesia and this could be keeping prices on the steady side for now. Also, as reported by Jacobsen, there is quite a bit of lower prices European material available that is helping to keep prices from rising in some markets. If the rally in soymeal prices continues then this should filter into the MBM side of the market in the coming days.
On the US domestic side, prices were up quite strongly by the end of the week as the rally in soymeal helped to push all protein items higher. With soymeal up by USD 20+ m/t then meat and bone meal suddenly looked like quite a bargain to the domestic feed producers. On the other side of things, feathermeal prices in the US were quite weak as recent price rallies may have been overdone and supply seems to be quickly catching up to demand.
If soymeal continues to move higher it is expected that meat and bone meal should follow along in both export and domestic market prices.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
Nothing much to report on fishmeal this week as most of the major players have been in Miami for the latest IFFO meetings – not even any updated Peru fishmeal reports this week. There have been a couple of short fishing bans in the south of Peru but, as with the catch, this is quite insignificant at present.
The USDA issued their updated EU28 info on fishmeal this week, as part of their oilseed, oil meals report. They forecast total EU28 fishmeal production at about 460,000 m/t, unchanged for the past couple of years with imports up just a little to 300,000 m/t and exports steady at 210,000 m/t. Germany and Denmark are the EU28 main import markets while Denmark is the largest producer of fishmeal in the EU 28.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,830 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,460 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,500 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,550 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,830 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1310 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1395 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1420/1440 m/t | 1430/1450 |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1500/1520 m/t | 1500/1520 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1550/1570 m/t | 1550/1570 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1650/1670 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2300/2350 | 2000/2100 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2550/2600 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2800/2850 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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