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Corporate Head Office: Suite 200B, Centre of Commerce, One Bay Street,
PO Box N-3944, Nassau, Bahamas. Tel 1.242.322.6154
Email: tradegroup@hammersmith.biz WWW: hammersmithltd.blogspot.com SKYPE: bacon39a
Representative Office: +33.9.7044.4881 Mobile: +33.6.8068.4564 Fax: +33.4.5774.7575
1 Traverse Du Cheval Blanc, St Remy de Provence, 13210 France
SECTION 1: US FEED GRAINS and VEGETABLE AND ANIMAL PROTEIN
We had a very strong week for grain and oilseed prices this week that is until we got to Friday and the futures rally seemed to come to a shuddering halt. Corn prices finished the week down by about USD 2.50 m/t after being up by about USD 8.0 m/t earlier in the week. Even with a drop of about USD 11 m/t on Friday, soymeal futures prices were still up by USD 9 m/t with soymeal staying up by about USD 16 m/t – but soymeal was well down from earlier levels when prices were up by almost USD 30 m/t.
Corn had moved higher early in the week due to strong US export inspections and corn demand from Brazil. Of course the political unrest in Brazil also helped move corn prices higher. USA export corn prices are now very competitive in world markets and possible increased export demand over summer months could help to push prices higher prior to the 2016 harvest.
It is also reported that some futures funds have been reducing their short positions which also helps to push corn prices higher. Also, part of the end of week prices drop was related to rains in Brazil that should help their corn crop.
After a strong up week last week for corn prices – until the large drop on Friday – it is next to impossible to know where prices will go next week. We will just have to wait and see which factors can push the market.
Soybeans/soymeal had a very exciting week with futures prices racing higher early in the week as investment funds were reported to be covering their short futures positions. It seems that they covered so many and pushed the futures market so much higher that it all fell apart on Friday as futures slumped by USD 11 to 13 m/t but was still up strongly on the week.
The soybean rally also was pushed higher by reports that Argentina could lose as much as 4 million m/t of soybeans due to excessive rains and flooding. However, the heavy rains appear to be over in Argentina so perhaps the crop losses may not be as high as thought.
One thing that the recent price rally has down is caused the US farmers to sell some of their soybean stocks. Nothing like higher prices to bring inventory to market.
Corn and soybeans will continue to be weather driven with everyone watching weather developments in the US for planting and in South America for harvest.
Crop planting progress and condition --- USA and France
| Planting USA | April 17 2016 | April 17 2015 | Five year Average |
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| Corn | 13.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% |
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| Sorghum | 16.0% | 18.0% | 21.0% |
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| Spring Wheat | 27.0% | 31.0% | 19.0% |
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| Barley | 19.0% | 38.0% | 26.0% |
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| Condition USA | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Winter wheat | 2.0% | 7.0% | 34.0% | 48.0% | 9.0% |
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| Planting France | April 18 2016 | April 18 2015 |
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| Corn | 11.0% | 47.0% |
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| Barley | 100.0% | 100.0% |
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| Condition France | Very poor | Poor | Fair | Good | Excellent |
| Wheat | 0 | 2 | 7 | 56 | 35 |
| Winter barley | 0 | 2 | 8 | 58 | 32 |
| Durum wheat | 0 | 2 | 14 | 61 | 23 |
| Spring barley | 0 | 0 | 5 | 72 | 22 |
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@USDA and France AgriMer
Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t, basis heavy grains
| US Gulf to Europe: 60/70,000 (10,000 disch) | $13/14.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf to Spain: 30,000 m/t (5,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf Israel: 50,000 MT | $21/22.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf to Egypt: Panamax(6,000 disch) | $20/21.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Turkey: 50,000 | $22/23.00 | Steady | X |
| US Gulf Morocco: 25,000(3,000 disch) | $29/30.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Nigeria: 30,000 m/t | $49/50.00 | Steady | x |
| US Gulf other Med: 25,000 MT(3,000 disch) | $30/31.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf Japan: Panamax | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| US Gulf China: Panamax | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW South Africa | $32/33.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW Japan: Panamax | $15/16.00 | Steady | x |
| US PNW China: Panamax | $14/15.00 | Steady | x |
| US East Coast Egypt: Panamax | $41/42.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| US East Coast Nigeria: Handisize | $48/49.00 | Steady | X |
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| France/Germany to Algeria: 30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Egypt: 50,000 m/t (10,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to Jordan: 35/45,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Saudi Arabia: 50/60,000 | $30/31.00 | Steady | x |
| France/Germany to South Africa: 30,000 m/t | $33/34.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| France/Germany to Yemen: 30,000 m/t | $48/49.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Argentina to Algeria: 25/30,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to China: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $25/26.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to Japan: 50,000 m/t, with top-off | $26/27.00 | Steady | x |
| Argentina to Egypt | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Europe: 50/60,000 m/t | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Morocco: 25,000 m/t(3,000 disch) | $22/23.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Saudi Arabia | $37/38.00 | Steady | X |
| Argentina to South Africa 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Spain: 30,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
| Argentina to Tunisia: 30,000 m/t | $24/25.00 | Up $1.00 | X |
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| Brazil to Algeria: 25,000 m/t | $25/26.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to China: 55,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Japan: 55,000 m/t | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Brazil to Europe | $25/26.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Morocco: 30,000 m/t | $23/24.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Brazil to Saudi Arabia | $34/35.00 | Up $2.00 | x |
| Brazil to Turkey/Egypt: 50,000 m/t | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
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| Australia to China: 40-55,000 m/t | $17.00/17.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Japan: 40-55,000 m/t | $18.00/18.50 | Steady | x |
| Australia to Saudi Arabia: 40-55,000 m/t | $22/23.00 | Steady | x |
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| Ukraine to China | $20/21.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to East Med: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $23/24.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to East Med: coaster (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Egypt: 40/50,000 m/t – (6,000 disch) | $10/11.00 | Steady | x |
| Ukraine to Egypt: coaster 3,000 m/t (1,000 disch) | $28/29.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Iraq: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $24/25.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Morocco: 30,000 m/t (3,000 disch) | $21/22.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Spain: 40/50,000 m/t (8,000 disch) | $11/12.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Jordan: 50,000 m/t (4,000 disch) | $16/17.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to Saudi Arabia – Jeddah – 50k | $21/22.00 | Steady | x |
| Black Sea to South Africa – 30,000 m//t | $26/27.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
| Black Sea to Tunisia/Algeria: 30,000(5,000 disch) | $19/20.00 | Up $1.00 | x |
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| Baltic Dry Index | 688 | Up 53 | x |
| Baltic Capesize Index | 1085 | Up 136 | x |
| Baltic Panamax Index | 736 | Up 9 | x |
| Baltic Supramax Index | 558 | Up 33 | x |
| Baltic Handisize Index | 354 | Up 33 | x |
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FOB port or location specified. Prices in US$, in metric tons:
All shipments in bulk grain vessels unless stated otherwise
(NOLA is New Orleans, Louisiana, USA.)
ALL PRICES ARE FOR May/July 2016
| Wheat, USA Soft Red Winter, NOLA | USD 195/199 | x |
| Wheat, USA Hard Red Winter 12 protein | USD 201/206 | x |
| Wheat, Ukraine 11.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 177/180 | x |
| Wheat, Russia 12.5 pro, 30,000+ m/t | USD 191/194 | x |
| Wheat, Romania 12.5 pro | USD 182/185 | x |
| Wheat, Superior, France, Rouen | USD 169/171 | x |
| Wheat, Medium, France, Rouen | USD 168/170 | x |
| Wheat, milling, 12.0%, Argentina, upriver | USD 192/196 | x |
| Wheat, feed, Black Sea | USD 167/170 | x |
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| Barley, France, Rouen port | USD 159/161 | x |
| Barley, feed, Argentina | USD 163/166 | x |
| Barley, feed, Black Sea, 30,000+ | USD 163/167 | x |
| Barley, feed, USA Pacific Northwest | USD 150/155 | x |
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| Corn, FOB NOLA USA | USD 167/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB USA Pacific northwest | USD 170/175 | x |
| Corn, CNF Asia, USA #2 | USD 206/209 | x |
| Corn, FOB Argentina port, upriver | USD 164/167 | x |
| Corn, FOB Brazil port | USD 169/172 | x |
| Corn, FOB Black Sea, 30,000+ m/t | USD 166/169 | x |
| Corn, FOB France | USD 182/185 | x |
| Corn, FOB Romania | USD 163/166 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Texas | USD 169/173 | x |
| Sorghum, FOB Argentina port | USD 160/165 | x |
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| Soymeal, 48% protein, FOB NOLA | USD 355/368 | X |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, USA, Rotterdam | USD 393/396 | x |
| Soymeal, 46.5 pro, USA CNF Asia | USD 418/425 | x |
| Soymeal, Argentina, Rotterdam | USD 373/376 | x |
| Soymeal, 47% pro, FOB Argentina | USD 359/362 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, Brazil, Rotterdam | USD 374/376 | x |
| Soymeal, FOB Brazil | USD 312/315 | x |
| Soymeal, 48% protein, India FAQ | USD 590/600 | x |
| Soybeans, FOB NOLA | USD 388/391 | x |
| Soybeans USA #2, CNF Asia | USD 431/435 | x |
| Soybeans, Argentina, FOB | USD 371/374 | x |
| Soybeans, Brazil, FOB | USD 388/391 | x |
| Soybeans, Black Sea | USD 390/400 | x |
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| Corn Gluten Meal, USA FOB NOLA | USD 535/540 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Asia, cont. | USD 584/587 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Meal, USA CNF Egypt, cont. | USD 610>>615 m/t | x |
| Corn Gluten Feed, USA FOB NOLA | USD 140/145 m/t | x |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA FOB NOLA | USD 172>>168 m/t | X |
| DDGS corn, 35 profat, USA CNF Asia, cont | USD 219>>211 m/t | x |
With the price of corn moving higher for much of the week it is easy to see why all corn by-product prices were a little higher. Well corn prices did drop on Friday it was a little too late in the week to cause any drop in by-product prices. DDGS prices moved a little higher on the week as DDGS were very, very competitive against corn prices. The US Grains Council weekly report says that DDGS prices to Asia were up by about USD 17 m/t. USA domestic prices for DDGS were reported to be up by about USD 10 m/t. Corn gluten meal export prices were up by about USD 5 m/t but will probably move higher if soymeal continues strong. Corn gluten feed prices in the US were up by about USD 8 m/t but export prices did not seem to reflect this increase and were mainly steady.
Prices next week will depend on what happens to both corn and soymeal prices. Both corn and soymeal prices were down strongly on Friday although soymeal was still up by at least USD 15 m/t on the week. Next week should be an interesting week for market volatility.
Container shipments, minimum 200 m/t
| Argentina Meat & Bone meal, 45/50 protein Argentina poultry meal, 57/60 protein Argentina feathermeal, 78/80 protein | USD 380/390 m/t CNF Asia USD 430/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 410/420 m/t CNF Asia |
| Paraguay Meat &Bone meal, 45% protein | USD 370/380 m/t CNF Asia |
| Australian MBM 45 protein Australian MBM 50 protein Australian Feathermeal, 80 protein Australian Poultry Meal, pet food | USD 420/440 m/t CNF Asia USD 465/475 m/t CNF Asia USD 490/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 710/730 m/t CNF Asia |
| USA Meat & Bone meal, 50 protein USA Feathermeal, 80 protein USA Poultry Meal, feed grade USA Poultry Meal, pet food grade | USD 470/490 m/t CNF Asia USD 480/500 m/t CNF Asia USD 550/600 m/t CNF Asia USD 720/750 m/t CNF Asia |
Animal protein export prices into Asia – Asia being the main market for animal protein exports – moved a little higher this week as demand for supply prior to Ramadan has put demand at a higher level than supply. However, there are some stories that buyer's bids are below current market price levels which could mean a little weaker prices if seller start booking these bids.
USA export prices are said to be a little lower this week which is interesting when one looks at the very strong week for soymeal. If soymeal continues to be strong then there is every chance that meat and bone meal prices will move higher.
The USA domestic market for animal protein was steady on the week with some comment that both feathermeal and poultry meal are expected to move higher which would push export priced higher too.
SECTION 2 --- FISHMEAL COMMENTS AND PRICES: PERUVIAN
In Peru there were a number of mini-bans in areas in the south – some for 5 days, others for 48 hours. So far only about 14,000 m/t of fish have been landed against southern quota of 382,000 m/t of fish. The southern Peru quota runs until June 30th and if all landed should result in just under 90,000 m/t of fishmeal.
The IFFO conference in Miami is said to have seen some decent pre-booking of fishmeal for the next fishing period. Estimates vary on actual sales levels, some say 40,000 m/t others say 50,000+ m/t booked. However, most experts seem to agree that the prices for new business were very close to current prices or perhaps a little higher depending on the grade booked.
There is little or nothing left to sell in Peru so buyers won't have too much luck in filling short term needs – unless they find a seller with exactly what they need.
The feeling now is that fishmeal prices will probably be steady to higher in coming weeks with sellers not willing to discount and buyers seeming to be willing to pay market prices.
As usual, everyone is wondering what the new quota will be and when it will be announced with most experts seeming to feel that 2.2 to 2.5 million m/t is the most likely quota level.
MSI Ceres published Peru export numbers in their report this week and, as to be expected, China is the top destination with 71% of January/March fishmeal exports. China was follows by Germany with 13.5% of exports. Four exporters/producers in Peru represented just under 75% of the export business with Hayduk being the largest, followed by Tasa, Austral and Exalmar.
European fishmeal prices – FOB North German port.
| Type | Protein % | Price per m/t USD |
| Herring fishmeal | 72% protein | 1,840 |
| Danish fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,470 |
| Peru fishmeal | 64% protein | 1,510 |
| Chile fishmeal | 67% protein | 1,560 |
| Iceland fishmeal | 70% protein | 1,850 |
PERU "INDICATION" FISHMEAL PRICES:
ALL PRICES SHOWN ARE IN CONTAINER, ON VESSEL, AT ORIGIN --- US DOLLARS
Minimum shipment of 200 m/t for fishmeal
| Specification | Price per m/t FOB vessel Peru port | Price per m/t Chile port |
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| 65% protein | 1300/1310 m/t |
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| 65/66 protein | 1330/1395 m/t |
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| 67% protein standard steam | 1350/1370 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 150 TVN | 1450/1470 m/t | No offers |
| 67% protein 120 TVN | 1550/1580 m/t | 1550/1580 |
| 67% protein 1000 hist, 120 TVN | 1580/1600 m/t | 1600/1520 |
| 68% protein 500 hist, 120 TVN | 1600/1620 m/t | 1650/1670 |
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| Fish oil, crude bulk | 2200/2250 | 1800/1900 |
| Fish oil, crude drums | 2350/2400 |
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| Fish oil, flexi tank | 2450/2500 |
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| Fish oil, Omega 3: 28%EPA/DHA | 2700/2800 |
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INFORMATION: gtee = guarantee, TVN = total volatile nitrogen, hist = histamine
The information contained herein is based on sources that we believe to be reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy. All references to prices are subject to change without notice. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author. As such, they may differ in material respects from those of, or expressed or published by or on behalf of, Hammersmith Marketing Ltd or its officers, directors, employees or affiliates
Copyright © 2016 Wayne S. Bacon
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